963
FXUS64 KOHX 121119
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
619 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEST
CHANCES ARE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
- RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, HOWEVER, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING,GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS.
- WARMTH CONTINUES INTO THE WORK WEEK, WITH 20 - 30% CHANCE OF
HEAT INDICES GREATER THAN 100 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, WHICH
WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME AREAS ALONG THE PLATEAU
COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS, BUT
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE QUIET.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THANKS
TO MOISTURE INCREASE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A SYSTEM TO OUR NW. WITH
THE FORCING OF THIS SHORTWAVE, WE COULD SEE SOME MORE ORGANIZED
AREAS OF CONVECTION IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW, BUT NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
FOR SUNDAY, PART OF OUR AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THIS IS BECAUSE A SECOND SHORTWAVE, ALBEIT WEAKER,
BEGINS APPROACHING OUR AREA, AS WELL AS A FRONT STALLING TO OUR
NORTH. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN, AND WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING,
GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED FROM STRONGER
STORMS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
RIDGING INTO THE WORK WEEK FAVORS MORE WARM TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED DIURNAL
RAIN CHANCES AND HOT HEAT INDICES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 100 DEGREE HEAT INDICES ARE AROUND 20 - 30%
BY MID-WEEK, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY AS YOU GET CLOSER TO WESTERN
TENNESSEE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z BUT THE
PROBABILITIES ARE LOW (<20%) FOR BNA/MQY/CSV/SRB SO NO MENTION OF
THUNDER WAS INCLUDED. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE AREA SO PROB30 WAS INCLUDED AT CKV. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SW AFTER 15Z AND THEN DECREASE
BELOW 5 KTS AFTER 02Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 94 74 93 73 / 40 30 60 10
CLARKSVILLE 92 73 91 73 / 50 30 50 10
CROSSVILLE 87 66 87 66 / 60 20 70 10
COLUMBIA 93 71 93 71 / 40 20 60 10
COOKEVILLE 88 69 88 69 / 50 30 60 20
JAMESTOWN 87 68 86 68 / 50 20 70 20
LAWRENCEBURG 92 70 91 70 / 40 20 60 10
MURFREESBORO 94 71 94 71 / 40 20 60 10
WAVERLY 92 71 91 71 / 40 30 50 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HOLLEY
LONG TERM....HOLLEY
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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