441
FXUS64 KOHX 121552
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1052 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1046 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEST
CHANCES ARE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
- RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, HOWEVER, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN,
GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS.
- WARMTH CONTINUES INTO THE WORK WEEK, WITH 20 - 30% CHANCE OF
HEAT INDICES GREATER THAN 100 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
AS OF 15Z, THE RADAR IS QUIET ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THERE ARE
SOME SCATTERED CU THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. BEHIND THE WAVE, PWAT VALUES ARE NOTABLY LOWER WITH A
POCKET IN WEST TENNESSEE INDICATING VALUES OF LESS THAT 1.5" WHILE
THE PLATEAU CURRENTLY HAVE PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 1.8". VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS A LACK OF CU GROWTH OVER WEST TENNESSEE DUE TO
THE DRIER SINKING AIR. LOOKING AT THE 12Z CAMS, THE AFTERNOON
STORM ACTIVITY IS PRETTY SUPPRESSED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THANKS
TO THIS MORE CONVECTIVELY-HOSTILE AIR. THAT DOESN'T MEAN WE WON'T
SEE A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS POP UP, BUT I FEEL LIKE THE CAMS
ARE ONTO SOMETHING WITH THE LIMITED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. THE ONE AREA WE'LL NEED TO WATCH IS THE NORTHWEST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS STORMS DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST AR, EASTERN MO, AND SOUTHERN IL AND PUSH EASTWARD. THIS
COULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA AFTER 00Z AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
03-04Z AS IT MOVES EAST.
A COUPLE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS BACK INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY AFTER 17Z. AS FAR AS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY, OUTSIDE THE
ISOLATED RISK FOR A STRONG WIND GUST WITH STORMS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING, I DON'T SEE MUCH POTENTIAL. RAINFALL
COULD BE HEAVY WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY, BUT STORM MOTIONS SHOULD
BE AROUND 20 MPH WHICH IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PREVENT A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT. HIGHS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S ON
THE PLATEAU AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES WEST OF THE PLATEAU
EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WE'LL KEEP THE DIURNAL STORM
CHANCES. ACTIVITY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN
NATURE WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH. THE UPPER HIGH MAY WEAKEN SOME AS WE GET INTO THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD WHICH WILL INCREASE THE DIURNAL ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THROUGH THE WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICIES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z BUT THE
PROBABILITIES ARE LOW (<20%) FOR BNA/MQY/CSV/SRB SO NO MENTION OF
THUNDER WAS INCLUDED. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE AREA SO PROB30 WAS INCLUDED AT CKV. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SW AFTER 15Z AND THEN DECREASE
BELOW 5 KTS AFTER 02Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 94 74 93 74 / 20 30 40 10
CLARKSVILLE 91 72 90 73 / 40 30 40 20
CROSSVILLE 87 67 86 67 / 40 20 40 10
COLUMBIA 93 71 92 71 / 30 20 50 10
COOKEVILLE 88 70 87 69 / 30 30 30 10
JAMESTOWN 87 68 86 68 / 40 20 40 20
LAWRENCEBURG 92 70 91 71 / 30 20 50 10
MURFREESBORO 94 71 92 72 / 30 20 40 10
WAVERLY 92 70 90 71 / 30 20 50 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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