977
FXUS64 KOHX 131544
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1044 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1039 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, BEST CHANCES
ARE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
- RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, HOWEVER, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN,
GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS.
- WARMTH CONTINUES INTO THE WORK WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
THINGS ARE PLAYING OUT SIMILAR THIS MORNING TO YESTERDAY. THE CU
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 HAVE BECOME AGITATED WITH A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. THOSE SHOWERS WILL MATURE AS THEY MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING WITH SOME PRODUCING LIGHTNING. FURTHER WEST, SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS ONCE
AGAIN WEAK, AND PWAT VALUES ARE BACK TO 1.8-2" STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUST TO 40 MPH.
DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH DIURNAL ACTIVITY.
TODAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEW
POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WHICH WILL GIVE US AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
THERE'S NO PATTERN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH DAILY STORM
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES MAY BEGIN TO REACH 105 TO 108 IN SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
PLATEAU BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE COOLER LOCATIONS ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
A SURFACE RIDGE SITS TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS MORNING, SO EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE WSW
DURING THE DAY. WE DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WHICH WE'LL HANDLE FOR NOW
WITH PROB30 REMARKS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR RADIATION FOG MAINLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 93 73 93 75 / 50 20 50 10
CLARKSVILLE 90 73 89 74 / 50 40 50 10
CROSSVILLE 86 66 87 67 / 50 20 50 10
COLUMBIA 91 71 92 72 / 50 20 50 10
COOKEVILLE 87 69 88 70 / 50 30 60 10
JAMESTOWN 86 67 87 68 / 50 20 60 10
LAWRENCEBURG 91 71 91 72 / 50 10 50 10
MURFREESBORO 93 71 93 72 / 60 20 50 10
WAVERLY 89 71 89 72 / 50 30 50 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....ROSE
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