515
FXUS64 KOHX 140353
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1053 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 958 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LOW, HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY
WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK AS MANY LOCATIONS WILL
NEAR OR SURPASS 100F FOR HEAT INDICIES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO A QUIET BUT VERY
WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN WELL NORTH
ACROSS KENTUCKY AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS EARLIER TODAY.
MONDAY SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF SUNDAY'S WEATHER WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. IMPACTS SHOULD BE SIMILAR WITH GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING,
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOR TUESDAY...COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS AND AS
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMING TREND TAKES SHAPE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EXPECTED. THE HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL ALSO START CLIMBING CLOSER
TO THAT TRIPLE DIGIT MARK AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK QUITE SIMILAR WITH BEST COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION REMAINING ACROSS THE PLATEAU
REGION. WITH THAT SAID, LOCATIONS WEST OF THE PLATEAU WILL
DEFINITELY FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THE LACK OF STORM AND CLOUD
COVERAGE AS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100+F CAN BE EXPECTED.
BY THE WEEKEND, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TAKES SHAPE WITH A
BIT BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER IF
THAT DOESN'T QUITE MATERIALIZE, IT'S SAFE TO SAY THE LACK OF
CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER DEFINITELY EQUALS HOTTER TEMPS TO DEAL
WITH AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SO YEAH,
WELCOME TO PEAK SUMMER IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
AS SHRA EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST, CONDITIONS WILL CALM DOWN IN
THAT REGARD. COULD SEE SOME IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AT EASTERN
SITES (KSRB/KCSV). WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 93 74 93 74 / 60 40 50 10
CLARKSVILLE 90 73 89 73 / 50 50 50 10
CROSSVILLE 86 66 87 66 / 60 20 50 10
COLUMBIA 91 72 92 72 / 50 40 50 10
COOKEVILLE 87 69 87 69 / 50 20 50 10
JAMESTOWN 86 68 86 68 / 50 30 50 10
LAWRENCEBURG 91 71 91 71 / 50 30 40 10
MURFREESBORO 93 71 93 72 / 50 30 40 10
WAVERLY 89 71 89 72 / 50 40 50 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HURLEY
LONG TERM....HURLEY
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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