203
FXUS64 KOHX 140451 AAA
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1151 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LOW, HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY
WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK AS MANY LOCATIONS WILL
NEAR OR SURPASS 100F FOR HEAT INDICIES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO A QUIET BUT VERY
WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN WELL NORTH
ACROSS KENTUCKY AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS EARLIER TODAY.
MONDAY SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF SUNDAY'S WEATHER WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. IMPACTS SHOULD BE SIMILAR WITH GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING,
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOR TUESDAY...COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS AND AS
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMING TREND TAKES SHAPE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EXPECTED. THE HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL ALSO START CLIMBING CLOSER
TO THAT TRIPLE DIGIT MARK AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK QUITE SIMILAR WITH BEST COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION REMAINING ACROSS THE PLATEAU
REGION. WITH THAT SAID, LOCATIONS WEST OF THE PLATEAU WILL
DEFINITELY FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THE LACK OF STORM AND CLOUD
COVERAGE AS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100+F CAN BE EXPECTED.
BY THE WEEKEND, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TAKES SHAPE WITH A
BIT BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER IF
THAT DOESN'T QUITE MATERIALIZE, IT'S SAFE TO SAY THE LACK OF
CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER DEFINITELY EQUALS HOTTER TEMPS TO DEAL
WITH AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SO YEAH,
WELCOME TO PEAK SUMMER IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
VFR EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR BR DEVELOPMENT
AT KCSV AND KSRB BETWEEN 10Z-13Z. AFTERNOON AND EVENING VCTS/TSRA
COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE LOWER END ON MONDAY, SO DID NOT INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IF ANY TSRA IMPACTS
OCCUR, THOSE WOULD MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO KCKV, KBNA, AND KMQY
FROM 19Z-23Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 93 74 94 / 40 50 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 73 89 73 90 / 40 50 20 10
CROSSVILLE 66 87 67 90 / 20 50 10 20
COLUMBIA 71 92 72 93 / 30 50 10 20
COOKEVILLE 69 87 69 90 / 30 50 20 10
JAMESTOWN 67 87 68 90 / 20 50 20 30
LAWRENCEBURG 70 91 71 92 / 30 40 10 10
MURFREESBORO 71 92 72 95 / 30 50 20 10
WAVERLY 71 90 72 91 / 40 60 20 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HURLEY
LONG TERM....HURLEY
AVIATION.....HURLEY
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