691
FXUS64 KOHX 141014
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
514 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 505 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LOW, HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY
WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK AS MANY LOCATIONS WILL
NEAR OR SURPASS 100F FOR HEAT INDICIES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
RINSE AND REPEAT. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY HASN'T BUDGED FROM
YESTERDAY'S. FOR THE MOST PART, WE HAVE 40-50% POPS ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD. A SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE IMMEDIATE
EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SO THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS
CHARACTERISTICS. WE WILL ONCE AGAIN ENJOY PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
WITH SKY-HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, BUT ALSO VERY LITTLE WIND
SHEAR AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE SPC DOES HAVE A
MARGINAL RISK ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE,
WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING THE ONLY THREAT. OTHERWISE, WE'LL KEEP AN
EYE OUT FOR ANY SLOW-MOVING STORMS THAT MIGHT PRODUCE HIGH
RAINFALL RATES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S -- VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES -- WITH HEAT INDICES
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO RIGHT AROUND 100 DEGREES IN A LOT
OF PLACES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO A QUIET BUT VERY
WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN WELL NORTH
ACROSS KENTUCKY AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS EARLIER TODAY.
MONDAY SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF SUNDAY'S WEATHER WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. IMPACTS SHOULD BE SIMILAR WITH GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING,
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOR TUESDAY...COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS AND AS
SOMEWHAT OF A WARMING TREND TAKES SHAPE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EXPECTED. THE HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL ALSO START CLIMBING CLOSER
TO THAT TRIPLE DIGIT MARK AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK QUITE SIMILAR WITH BEST COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION REMAINING ACROSS THE PLATEAU
REGION. WITH THAT SAID, LOCATIONS WEST OF THE PLATEAU WILL
DEFINITELY FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THE LACK OF STORM AND CLOUD
COVERAGE AS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100+F CAN BE EXPECTED.
BY THE WEEKEND, A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TAKES SHAPE WITH A
BIT BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER IF
THAT DOESN'T QUITE MATERIALIZE, IT'S SAFE TO SAY THE LACK OF
CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER DEFINITELY EQUALS HOTTER TEMPS TO DEAL
WITH AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SO YEAH,
WELCOME TO PEAK SUMMER IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
VFR EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR BR DEVELOPMENT
AT KCSV AND KSRB BETWEEN 10Z-13Z. AFTERNOON AND EVENING VCTS/TSRA
COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE LOWER END ON MONDAY, SO DID NOT INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IF ANY TSRA IMPACTS
OCCUR, THOSE WOULD MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO KCKV, KBNA, AND KMQY
FROM 19Z-23Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 93 74 94 75 / 50 20 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 89 73 90 74 / 50 20 10 10
CROSSVILLE 87 67 90 69 / 50 10 20 20
COLUMBIA 92 72 93 73 / 50 10 20 10
COOKEVILLE 87 69 90 71 / 50 20 10 20
JAMESTOWN 87 68 90 70 / 50 20 30 20
LAWRENCEBURG 91 71 92 72 / 40 10 10 10
MURFREESBORO 92 72 95 73 / 50 20 10 10
WAVERLY 90 72 91 73 / 60 20 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...HURLEY
LONG TERM....HURLEY
AVIATION.....HURLEY
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