379
FXUS64 KOHX 141558
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1058 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1054 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LOW, HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY
WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK AS MANY LOCATIONS WILL
NEAR OR SURPASS 100F FOR HEAT INDICIES.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
SUMMERTIME CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S AT THIS HOUR WITH
A FEW SHOWERS STARTING TO SHOW UP. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A REMNANT MCV
SITTING IN EASTERN ARKANSAS THAT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. THIS COULD
FIRE UP SOME OF THE ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN REGARDS TO
SEVERE STORMS, THE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. PWAT VALUES REMAIN
1.8-2" WHICH WILL AID IN SOME HEAVY RAIN. OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED
STREET FLOODING, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS LOW. AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHS FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. A COUPLE LOCATIONS
MAY CREEP INTO THE MID 90S ON TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE HOW
WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE. IF TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO GET INTO THE
MID 90S ON TUESDAY, HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES. I
WILL NOT DO A HEAT ADVISORY BECAUSE MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH OF WIDESPREAD VALUES OVER 105.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRETTY STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. THERE IS A LOW THAT WILL WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF, BUT THAT SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BEFORE IT MAKES THE NORTHERN TURN INLAND TO REALLY
AFFECT OUR STORM COVERAGE. EXPECT THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS AND LOWS AROUND AVERAGE. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AS THEY MAY GET INTO THE
105-110 RANGE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2025
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED JUST EAST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND THE AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS ARE A CARBON-COPY OF
WHAT WE OBSERVED 24 HRS. AGO. MORNING FOG AT KCSV AND KSRB HAS
DISSIPATED, SO WE'RE VFR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT A BRIEF MVFR CEILING AT
KMQY. AS BEFORE, WE'LL START OFF WITH PROB30 REMARKS FOR TS/CBS
DURING THE AFTERNOON, THEN UPGRADE TO TEMPO ONCE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS SO THAT WE CAN HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. ONCE
AGAIN, WE EXPECT RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT AT KCSV AND KSRB.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 92 74 94 75 / 50 20 30 20
CLARKSVILLE 89 73 91 74 / 50 30 50 20
CROSSVILLE 87 68 89 69 / 40 10 40 20
COLUMBIA 92 72 93 73 / 50 20 30 20
COOKEVILLE 87 70 90 72 / 40 20 40 20
JAMESTOWN 87 68 89 70 / 50 10 50 20
LAWRENCEBURG 91 71 92 72 / 40 10 30 10
MURFREESBORO 92 72 94 74 / 40 20 30 20
WAVERLY 90 72 91 72 / 40 20 40 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....ROSE
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