725
FXUS64 KOHX 010154
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
854 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 853 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
- MOST OF MIDDLE TN WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES REMAINING FOR AREAS ALONG THE PLATEAU.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (30-70%) RETURN SUNDAY.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS VERY LOW, BUT STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
HEAT ADVISORY HAS ENDED. FINALLY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
REGIONAL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST, AND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NOW WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS COINCIDES WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PROGRESSING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH KENTUCKY WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW
ONGOING WITH AID OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NEAR THE
FRONT ITSELF. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS GOOD NEWS
AS THIS WILL PROVIDE AN END TO OUR RECENT DAYS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, WE'LL WATCH FOR SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL AS ALONG THE
PLATEAU WHERE THERE'S INCREASED MOISTURE NEAR OROGRAPHIC LIFT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
105 THIS AFTERNOON, ASSUMING RAIN DOESN'T COOL THINGS OFF.
THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT BY
TOMORROW MORNING AS DEWPOINTS DECLINE INTO THE 60S FOR AREAS
ALONG/NORTH OF I-40. MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER
IN ADDITION TO LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES TOMORROW SHOULD FAVOR AREAS SOUTH, AND ALONG THE PLATEAU,
WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD GETS A FEW SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM GOING DURING PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE FORECAST WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE AND
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. WE'LL CERTAINLY TAKE THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR A WHILE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
IT APPEARS OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD STEADY FOR SATURDAY WITH
EFFECTS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING IN THE AREA AND A MORE
STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR SUNDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS
DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHICH IS MODELED TO DEVELOP AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTAIN AN AXIS OF HIGHER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO FOSTER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES REMAIN EAST OF I-65 AT THIS TIME.
A SUBSEQUENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS
DEPICTED IN MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE INTO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
DICTATE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF MODERATED TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
MEDIUM CHANCES (40-50%) OF RAIN/STORMS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT
APPEARS A SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WOULD FAVOR A
DECREASING TREND IN RAIN CHANCES WITH AN ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES (BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES IN THIS CASE).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES UNTIL WE GET TO AROUND 06Z. LOW
CLOUDS WILL CREEP IN FROM THE NORTH AND OVERTAKE THE AREA DROPPING
EVERYONE TO MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS UNTIL AROUND 18-20Z. CSV AND SRB
COULD SEE LIFR CEILINGS BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT IN THEIR PRESENCE SO
LEFT IT AT IFR. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN EASTERN SITES TONIGHT
(CSV/SRB), BUT EVERYONE WILL BE NORTHERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 86 67 88 / 10 20 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 71 84 64 85 / 10 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 68 81 63 80 / 20 40 10 40
COLUMBIA 73 86 66 87 / 20 20 0 10
COOKEVILLE 70 81 64 82 / 20 20 10 20
JAMESTOWN 68 79 62 81 / 30 30 10 30
LAWRENCEBURG 72 85 66 86 / 20 30 10 20
MURFREESBORO 73 86 65 87 / 20 20 10 20
WAVERLY 70 83 63 85 / 10 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......UNGER
SHORT TERM...SIZEMORE
LONG TERM....SIZEMORE
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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