868
FXUS64 KOHX 010439
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1133 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
- A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE HEAT STARTS TOMORROW WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- MOST OF MIDDLE TN WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES REMAINING FOR AREAS ALONG THE PLATEAU.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) RETURN SUNDAY.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
WHETHER YOU CAN BELIEVE IT OR NOT, WE ACTUALLY HAD A "COLD" FRONT
PASS THROUGH MIDDLE TN TODAY. IT BROUGHT WITH IT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, IT'S GOING TO BE
THE START OF A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THIS OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THE DOWNSIDE IS THAT THE AIRMASS CHANGE IS LAGGING A LITTLE BIT.
THAT MEANS PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
AREAS THAT SAW THE RAIN TODAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL SLOWLY
START TO FILTER INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AND I EXPECT THE AIR TO
FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS OPPRESSIVE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 80S. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-40 DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT SHOULDN'T BE ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOING TO BE DOMINATED BY UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK -- A SOLID 4 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS. HOWEVER, WITH THE TROUGHING COMES DAILY RAIN
CHANCES (50-70%). FORECAST SOUNDING, ON THE WHOLE, ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE WITH LAPSE RATES AT 6 DEG/KM OR LESS. BUT IT IS
STILL SUMMER AND EVEN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S CAN PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INSTABILITY FOR A
STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO EACH DAY. IF I HAD TO PICK A DAY OR TWO TO
PAY PARTICULARLY CLOSE ATTENTION TO, I'D HAD HAVE TO SAY TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS MIDDLE TN AND
LAPSE RATES CREEP TOWARDS 6.5 DEG/KM. AGAIN, NOT IMPRESSIVE, BUT
COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR THOSE WIND GUSTS. PWS ALSO BACK OFF
TOWARDS SEASONAL VALUES, SO THIS SHOULD LESSEN THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT AS WELL.
CURRENT EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK, WE
SHOULD START GETTING BACK INTO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD ALSO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH CPC'S 6-10 DAY
TRENDS. SO, SOAK UP THESE UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. SUMMER ISN'T OVER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES UNTIL WE GET TO AROUND 06Z. LOW
CLOUDS WILL CREEP IN FROM THE NORTH AND OVERTAKE THE AREA DROPPING
EVERYONE TO MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS UNTIL AROUND 18-20Z. CSV AND SRB
COULD SEE LIFR CEILINGS BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT IN THEIR PRESENCE SO
LEFT IT AT IFR. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN EASTERN SITES TONIGHT
(CSV/SRB), BUT EVERYONE WILL BE NORTHERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 73 85 68 86 / 20 20 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 71 83 65 84 / 10 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 69 81 63 79 / 20 30 10 60
COLUMBIA 72 86 67 86 / 20 20 10 10
COOKEVILLE 70 81 65 81 / 20 30 10 30
JAMESTOWN 68 79 63 79 / 30 30 10 30
LAWRENCEBURG 72 86 66 85 / 20 30 10 20
MURFREESBORO 73 86 67 86 / 20 20 10 20
WAVERLY 69 83 64 84 / 20 10 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....HOLLEY
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