196
FXUS64 KOHX 011118
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
618 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
- A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE HEAT STARTS TOMORROW WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- MOST OF MIDDLE TN WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES REMAINING FOR AREAS ALONG THE PLATEAU.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) RETURN SUNDAY.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
WHETHER YOU CAN BELIEVE IT OR NOT, WE ACTUALLY HAD A "COLD" FRONT
PASS THROUGH MIDDLE TN TODAY. IT BROUGHT WITH IT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, IT'S GOING TO BE
THE START OF A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THIS OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THE DOWNSIDE IS THAT THE AIRMASS CHANGE IS LAGGING A LITTLE BIT.
THAT MEANS PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
AREAS THAT SAW THE RAIN TODAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL SLOWLY
START TO FILTER INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AND I EXPECT THE AIR TO
FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS OPPRESSIVE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 80S. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-40 DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT SHOULDN'T BE ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOING TO BE DOMINATED BY UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK -- A SOLID 4 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS. HOWEVER, WITH THE TROUGHING COMES DAILY RAIN
CHANCES (50-70%). FORECAST SOUNDING, ON THE WHOLE, ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE WITH LAPSE RATES AT 6 DEG/KM OR LESS. BUT IT IS
STILL SUMMER AND EVEN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S CAN PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INSTABILITY FOR A
STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO EACH DAY. IF I HAD TO PICK A DAY OR TWO TO
PAY PARTICULARLY CLOSE ATTENTION TO, I'D HAD HAVE TO SAY TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS MIDDLE TN AND
LAPSE RATES CREEP TOWARDS 6.5 DEG/KM. AGAIN, NOT IMPRESSIVE, BUT
COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR THOSE WIND GUSTS. PWS ALSO BACK OFF
TOWARDS SEASONAL VALUES, SO THIS SHOULD LESSEN THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT AS WELL.
CURRENT EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK, WE
SHOULD START GETTING BACK INTO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD ALSO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH CPC'S 6-10 DAY
TRENDS. SO, SOAK UP THESE UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. SUMMER ISN'T OVER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING THAT IS IMPACTING CSV WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNTIL AROUND 16Z-19Z. A
LOW CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OUT THIS MORNING HELPING ALL TERMINALS
REACH VFR AROUND 19Z. CHANCES OF STORMS IMPACTING TERMINALS TODAY
ARE LOW, WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY AND CALM INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH A MENTION OF SOME
FOG AT CSV AND SRB.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 86 68 87 69 / 10 10 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 83 64 85 65 / 10 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 82 63 79 65 / 20 10 50 50
COLUMBIA 87 67 87 68 / 20 10 10 20
COOKEVILLE 82 64 82 66 / 20 10 20 40
JAMESTOWN 79 63 80 64 / 20 10 20 50
LAWRENCEBURG 86 66 85 68 / 20 10 10 20
MURFREESBORO 87 66 87 68 / 20 10 10 20
WAVERLY 83 64 84 64 / 10 10 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS/LC
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