506  
FXUS64 KOHX 011639  
AFDOHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN  
1139 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 1129 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025  
 
- A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE  
80S CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
- MOST OF MIDDLE TN WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH  
LOW RAIN CHANCES REMAINING FOR AREAS ALONG THE PLATEAU. HIGHER  
RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) RETURN SUNDAY.  
 
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS VERY LOW.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025  
 
TODAY WILL SEEM COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE  
MID-80S. THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY IS GIVING US A  
WONDERFUL BREAK FROM THE RECENT OPPRESSIVE HEAT. BEHIND THIS  
FRONT, MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HOWEVER, A PWAT OF  
1.92" FROM THIS MORNING'S 12Z SOUNDING WILL STILL GIVE A LOW  
20-30% CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF I-40 THROUGH  
SUNSET. THE SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW, BUT IF A STORM DEVELOPS, IT  
IS POSSIBLE FOR A STORM TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE HIGH  
PWATS. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, THE ~10 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION  
WILL MAKE AREAS HARDER TO FOG TONIGHT ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE MID  
TO UPPER 60S AND A CALM NORTHEASTERLY WIND. COOLER TEMPERATURES  
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. MOST OF THE AREA STILL REMAINS DRY WITH  
JUST LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE PLATEAU.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP KEEP  
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF  
NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STORM CHANCES EAST OF I-65 THIS WEEKEND WITH  
SUNDAY HAVING THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF STORMS (60-80%). STARTING  
THE WORK WEEK, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TENNESSEE  
INFLUENCING THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES (40-60%). MODEL SOUNDINGS  
SHOW LAPSE RATES NEARING 6 C/KM, WHICH ISN'T TOO IMPRESSIVE, BUT  
COULD RESULT IN A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. PWS WILL  
DECREASE NEARING CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL WHICH WILL  
LESSEN THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LEAVES,  
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LEAVE WITH IT. NEARING THE END OF THE  
WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE CENTRAL US SO HIGHS WILL  
RAMP BACK UP INTO THE 90S, BUT LOW TO MEDIUM DAILY RAIN CHANCES  
WILL CONTINUE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025  
 
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING THAT IS IMPACTING CSV WILL DIMINISH  
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES  
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNTIL AROUND 16Z-19Z. A  
LOW CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OUT THIS MORNING HELPING ALL TERMINALS  
REACH VFR AROUND 19Z. CHANCES OF STORMS IMPACTING TERMINALS TODAY  
ARE LOW, WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN  
NORTHERLY AND CALM INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH A MENTION OF SOME  
FOG AT CSV AND SRB.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
NASHVILLE 86 67 87 69 / 10 10 10 30  
CLARKSVILLE 83 64 85 65 / 0 0 0 10  
CROSSVILLE 82 63 80 64 / 30 10 40 80  
COLUMBIA 87 67 86 68 / 20 10 10 30  
COOKEVILLE 82 65 83 66 / 20 10 20 70  
JAMESTOWN 79 63 79 64 / 20 10 20 70  
LAWRENCEBURG 86 66 85 67 / 30 10 20 40  
MURFREESBORO 87 67 86 68 / 20 10 10 40  
WAVERLY 83 63 85 64 / 10 10 0 10  
 
 
   
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS/LC  
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS/LC  
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS/LC  
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