209
FXUS64 KOHX 012332
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
632 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 629 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
- A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
80S CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- MOST OF MIDDLE TN WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LOW RAIN CHANCES REMAINING FOR AREAS ALONG THE PLATEAU. HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) RETURN SUNDAY.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
TODAY WILL SEEM COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-80S. THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY IS GIVING US A
WONDERFUL BREAK FROM THE RECENT OPPRESSIVE HEAT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HOWEVER, A PWAT OF
1.92" FROM THIS MORNING'S 12Z SOUNDING WILL STILL GIVE A LOW
20-30% CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF I-40 THROUGH
SUNSET. THE SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW, BUT IF A STORM DEVELOPS, IT
IS POSSIBLE FOR A STORM TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE HIGH
PWATS. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, THE ~10 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
WILL MAKE AREAS HARDER TO FOG TONIGHT ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S AND A CALM NORTHEASTERLY WIND. COOLER TEMPERATURES
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. MOST OF THE AREA STILL REMAINS DRY WITH
JUST LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STORM CHANCES EAST OF I-65 THIS WEEKEND WITH
SUNDAY HAVING THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF STORMS (60-80%). STARTING
THE WORK WEEK, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TENNESSEE
INFLUENCING THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES (40-60%). MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW LAPSE RATES NEARING 6 C/KM, WHICH ISN'T TOO IMPRESSIVE, BUT
COULD RESULT IN A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. PWS WILL
DECREASE NEARING CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL WHICH WILL
LESSEN THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LEAVES,
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LEAVE WITH IT. NEARING THE END OF THE
WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE CENTRAL US SO HIGHS WILL
RAMP BACK UP INTO THE 90S, BUT LOW TO MEDIUM DAILY RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
A MUCH-WELCOME SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW LIES SOUTH OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, HENCE THE 180-DEGREE AIR MASS CHANGE. A BAND OF LOW-
LEVEL, POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION, HENCE THE MVFR CEILINGS WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING FOR THE
PAST FEW HOURS. LOW CEILINGS SHOULD ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HANG IN OVERNIGHT
AT CSV. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP A FEW KNOTS, SO THIS SHOULD
HELP LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 67 87 69 84 / 10 10 30 60
CLARKSVILLE 64 85 65 84 / 0 0 10 40
CROSSVILLE 63 80 64 75 / 10 40 80 80
COLUMBIA 67 86 68 82 / 10 10 30 60
COOKEVILLE 65 83 66 79 / 10 20 70 80
JAMESTOWN 63 79 64 76 / 10 20 70 80
LAWRENCEBURG 66 85 67 81 / 10 20 40 70
MURFREESBORO 67 86 68 82 / 10 10 40 70
WAVERLY 63 85 64 84 / 10 0 10 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....ROSE
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