157
FXUS64 KOHX 020339
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1039 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1034 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
- A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
80S CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- MOST OF MIDDLE TN WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES REMAINING FOR AREAS ALONG THE
PLATEAU. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) RETURN SUNDAY.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY
ARRIVED. THIS WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S, MAKING FOR MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE OUTDOOR VENTURES.
THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ON THE PLATEAU. THOSE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA WILL BE CLOUDY, EVEN IF THEY DON'T SEE ANY RAINFALL
SATURDAY. MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS
TROUGH WILL CREATE A WET START TO THE WORK WEEK. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY, BRINGING WITH IT,
MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS LOW DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, LAPSE RATES IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY WHICH COULD LEAD TO ONE OR TWO STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
HEAVY RAINS WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AS PWATS HAVE BACKED OFF
GREATLY. WITH THAT SAID, AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE IN THE SUMMER, IF
YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RADAR AND STAY
WEATHER AWARE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
DON'T GET TOO ATTACHED TO THOSE COOL TEMPERATURES YET! TO CLOSE THE
WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE BACK
INTO TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WHILE THIS IS WARMER THAN THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF SEASONAL AVERAGES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO CUT BACK ON
RAIN CHANCES, THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
A MUCH-WELCOME SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW LIES SOUTH OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, HENCE THE 180-DEGREE AIR MASS CHANGE. A BAND OF LOW-
LEVEL, POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION, HENCE THE MVFR CEILINGS WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING FOR THE
PAST FEW HOURS. LOW CEILINGS SHOULD ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HANG IN OVERNIGHT
AT CSV. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP A FEW KNOTS, SO THIS SHOULD
HELP LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 67 87 70 83 / 0 10 10 70
CLARKSVILLE 63 85 65 83 / 0 0 0 40
CROSSVILLE 63 80 65 74 / 10 50 70 80
COLUMBIA 66 87 68 83 / 0 10 10 80
COOKEVILLE 64 82 66 77 / 10 30 50 80
JAMESTOWN 63 79 65 75 / 10 30 60 90
LAWRENCEBURG 65 85 67 80 / 10 20 20 80
MURFREESBORO 66 87 69 83 / 0 20 30 80
WAVERLY 63 85 64 83 / 0 0 0 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CROCKETT/UNGER
LONG TERM....CROCKETT/UNGER
AVIATION.....ROSE
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