067
FXUS64 KOHX 021128
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
- A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
80S CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- MOST OF MIDDLE TN WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES REMAINING FOR AREAS ALONG THE
PLATEAU. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) RETURN SUNDAY.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY
ARRIVED. THIS WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S, MAKING FOR MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE OUTDOOR VENTURES.
THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ON THE PLATEAU. THOSE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA WILL BE CLOUDY, EVEN IF THEY DON'T SEE ANY RAINFALL
SATURDAY. MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS
TROUGH WILL CREATE A WET START TO THE WORK WEEK. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY, BRINGING WITH IT,
MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS LOW DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, LAPSE RATES IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY WHICH COULD LEAD TO ONE OR TWO STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
HEAVY RAINS WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AS PWATS HAVE BACKED OFF
GREATLY. WITH THAT SAID, AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE IN THE SUMMER, IF
YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RADAR AND STAY
WEATHER AWARE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025
DON'T GET TOO ATTACHED TO THOSE COOL TEMPERATURES YET! TO CLOSE THE
WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE BACK
INTO TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. WHILE THIS IS WARMER THAN THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF SEASONAL AVERAGES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO CUT BACK ON
RAIN CHANCES, THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOW PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS NEAR SRB, WITH IFR
CIGS REPORTED AT CSV. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE MORNING. WHILE CIGS IMPROVE BY THE AFTERNOON, I'VE
MAINTAINED PROB30S FOR TS POTENTIAL. ADDITIONAL SHRA POTENTIAL IS
FORECAST AFTER ~09Z WITH MVFR CIG/VIS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE (BNA, MQY, CKV), TAFS ARE A VFR WIND FORECAST WITH
PREVAILING NE WINDS AT 7-10 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUDS. THERE'S INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND MVFR CIG
POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 87 70 83 68 / 0 20 50 20
CLARKSVILLE 85 65 83 67 / 0 0 30 20
CROSSVILLE 80 65 74 61 / 40 60 80 40
COLUMBIA 87 68 83 65 / 10 10 60 20
COOKEVILLE 82 66 77 64 / 20 50 80 40
JAMESTOWN 79 65 75 62 / 30 50 80 40
LAWRENCEBURG 85 67 80 64 / 10 20 60 20
MURFREESBORO 87 69 83 66 / 10 30 60 30
WAVERLY 85 64 83 65 / 0 0 20 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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