625
FXUS64 KOHX 022327
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
80S CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- MOST OF MIDDLE TN WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES REMAINING FOR AREAS ALONG THE
PLATEAU. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) RETURN SUNDAY.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS VERY LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
WELL, THE HRRR HAD IT RIGHT LAST NIGHT. NO SHOWERS PRESENTED
THEMSELVES ON THE PLATEAU TODAY. HOWEVER, THIS WON'T BE THE CASE
LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST THING TOMORROW. LARGE CONSENSUS OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE BRINGING AT
LEAST A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS EAST
OF I-65 EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND LIKELY STICKING AROUND THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE, BUT SEVERE
THREAT IS VERY, VERY LOW -- MIGHT I SAY, ZERO. THE BEST PART?
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
WHAT AN EARLY AUGUST MORNING! TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70S AT
THIS HOUR WITH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA STILL PRETTY CLOUDY.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN EAST TENNESSEE AND MORE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OF OUR CWA. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, WE'LL REMAIN DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER, BUT WE
WILL SEE MORE SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE AS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT MORE
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN WAVY TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
SOME SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE AROUND MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IT
WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO SUNDAY AS WE'LL BE BETWEEN
TROUGHS. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS TROUGHING WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, SO HIGHER POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WEAKENS IN PLACE AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY SO RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BUT NOT COMPLETELY BE GONE
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED,
WE'LL KEEP THE HIGHS IN THE 80S LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
TROUGHY PATTERN. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY'LL START TO CREEP
INTO THE LOWER 90S AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REMEMBER FOLKS, IT
IS EARLY AUGUST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AT ISSUANCE TIME, BUT A CLOUD DECK
LINGERS AND WILL LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
CKV. LOOK FOR MVFR TO SETTLE INTO ALL TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE AND
STICK AROUND FOR THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY FOR
CSV/SRB AND VCTS FOR BNA AND MQY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (LESS THAN
10 KTS) AND SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 70 83 68 85 / 20 60 30 30
CLARKSVILLE 64 83 67 84 / 0 30 30 30
CROSSVILLE 65 74 61 77 / 50 70 40 40
COLUMBIA 68 82 65 82 / 20 50 20 30
COOKEVILLE 67 77 64 80 / 50 70 40 40
JAMESTOWN 65 75 62 79 / 50 80 40 40
LAWRENCEBURG 67 81 64 81 / 30 60 20 30
MURFREESBORO 69 82 65 83 / 40 60 30 30
WAVERLY 64 83 65 82 / 0 20 20 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......UNGER
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....UNGER
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