573
FXUS64 KOHX 030541
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1241 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES LASTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AFTER WHICH THE FORECAST WILL TURN DRIER.
- THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS VERY LOW FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 8 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
AN INVERTED TROUGH IS DEEPENING OVER EAST TENNESSEE THIS EVENING,
AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW, THEREBY BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY WITH US FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST, WITH SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE TAKING PLACE PROBABLY ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS, OUR RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
CLIMB BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TOTAL QPF FOR THE NEXT 8 DAYS
RANGES FROM LESS THAN 1/2" ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER, TO 1 TO 2"
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND ADJACENT AREAS.
FORTUNATELY, THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS (AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER IN
GENERAL) WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BRINGING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
MVFR CIGS BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY ~12Z OR SO, PERHAPS EARLIER NEAR SRB
AND CSV. SHRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WITH
A FEW EMBEDDED TS. THUNDER MENTIONING WAS MOVED TO PROB30S SINCE
SHRA SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT FORM OF CONVECTION. ACTIVITY WILL
DECLINE AFTER 00Z, BUT MVFR CIGS APPEAR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR E TO SE DURING THE DAY AT 5-8 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 81 68 83 69 / 60 30 20 30
CLARKSVILLE 83 68 82 68 / 30 20 20 30
CROSSVILLE 74 60 77 62 / 90 30 30 30
COLUMBIA 81 65 81 66 / 60 20 20 30
COOKEVILLE 76 63 79 65 / 90 30 30 30
JAMESTOWN 75 62 79 63 / 90 40 50 30
LAWRENCEBURG 79 65 81 65 / 60 20 20 30
MURFREESBORO 80 65 83 66 / 70 30 20 30
WAVERLY 83 65 81 66 / 20 20 20 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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