015
FXUS64 KOHX 031619
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1119 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1115 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE LOWER
RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK.
- THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS VERY LOW FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 8 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AFTER DARK. INSTABILITY IS
WEAK SO THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW BUT NOT ZERO. CAMS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
PWAT VALUES ARE MARGINAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THAT SAID,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (25%) SOME AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 PICK
UP AN INCH TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE
HREF SHOWS THERE IS ABOUT A 10% CHANCE THAT A COUPLE LOCALIZED
AREAS EXCEED 2 INCHES. WITH THE CLOUDS AND ONGOING SHOWERS,
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
70S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD INTO WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. A UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW MAINLY DIURNAL ACTIVITY ON MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE WITH THE AXIS STILL IN WEST
TENNESSEE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP THE MEDIUM SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AND KEEP THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
GOING. AS WE MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK, THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
BROADEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE. IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL JOIN US AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO PREVAIL ACROSS MIDDLE TN AIRFIELDS
TODAY, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LOW CEILINGS. CLOUDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCT-NUM SHRA, WITH ISO EMBEDDED TS, WHICH
COMPLICATED TAFS SOMEWHAT. HEAVIEST CONVECTION COULD ALSO RESULT
IN IFR VIS/CIG. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NNE BUT SHOULD FAVOR E TO ESE
BY THE AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KTS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TOWARD ~00Z WITH VFR POSSIBLY MAKING A RETURN AT BNA AND MQY,
THOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SRB/CSV.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 81 69 82 68 / 60 40 30 20
CLARKSVILLE 83 67 82 67 / 30 30 40 20
CROSSVILLE 73 61 77 61 / 80 30 40 40
COLUMBIA 80 66 81 66 / 50 30 30 20
COOKEVILLE 76 64 79 64 / 80 30 40 30
JAMESTOWN 75 63 79 63 / 80 40 50 40
LAWRENCEBURG 78 65 80 64 / 60 30 30 20
MURFREESBORO 79 66 82 66 / 70 30 30 20
WAVERLY 83 66 81 65 / 20 20 30 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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