692
FXUS64 KOHX 032338
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
638 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE LOWER
RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK.
- THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS VERY LOW FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 8 DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN THIS
EVENING AS WE ENDED UP WITH SOME FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN WILSON AND WESTERN SMITH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW
MOVING AND TRAINING CELLS OF HEAVY RAIN LEAD TO 5+ INCHES OF RAIN
IN SEVERAL SPOTS. HOWEVER, THIS DIDN'T LEAD TO ANYTHING OTHER THAN
SOME NUISANCE FLOODING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WHILE THE RAIN SHOULD SUBSIDE, CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. CAMS SUGGEST A LOT LESS COVERAGE
IN THE RAINFALL CATEGORY TOMORROW, BUT WITH THE CLOUDS AND
CONTINUED TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AFTER DARK. INSTABILITY IS
WEAK SO THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW BUT NOT ZERO. CAMS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
PWAT VALUES ARE MARGINAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THAT SAID,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (25%) SOME AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 PICK
UP AN INCH TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE
HREF SHOWS THERE IS ABOUT A 10% CHANCE THAT A COUPLE LOCALIZED
AREAS EXCEED 2 INCHES. WITH THE CLOUDS AND ONGOING SHOWERS,
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
70S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD INTO WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. A UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW MAINLY DIURNAL ACTIVITY ON MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE WITH THE AXIS STILL IN WEST
TENNESSEE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP THE MEDIUM SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AND KEEP THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
GOING. AS WE MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK, THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
BROADEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE. IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL JOIN US AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2025
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED JUST EAST OF THE TENNESSEE
RIVER HAS PROVIDED THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS TODAY, SOME EXHIBITING VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES. ACTIVE
WEATHER IS ON THE DECLINE NOW AND SHOULD REMAIN AT A NADIR DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WE DO EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOW CEILINGS AT SOME OF THE TERMINALS AND ALSO LIGHT
RADIATION FOG -- ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. ALL TAFS
ARE VFR FROM 13Z ONWARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 68 82 67 84 / 50 30 20 40
CLARKSVILLE 68 82 67 83 / 30 40 30 40
CROSSVILLE 61 77 62 76 / 30 40 40 60
COLUMBIA 66 82 65 83 / 30 30 20 30
COOKEVILLE 64 79 64 79 / 50 40 40 50
JAMESTOWN 63 79 63 78 / 30 50 40 60
LAWRENCEBURG 64 80 64 81 / 30 30 20 40
MURFREESBORO 66 82 66 83 / 60 30 20 40
WAVERLY 66 82 65 83 / 20 30 30 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......UNGER
SHORT TERM...REAGAN
LONG TERM....REAGAN
AVIATION.....ROSE
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