914
FXUS64 KOHX 050348
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1048 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
AS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE, WE'VE SEEN SOME CLEARING OCCUR OVER
A GOOD PORTION OF MIDDLE TN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. A PRETTY SOLID
CLOUD DECK REMAIN OVER THE PLATEAU, BUT MANY ACROSS THE AREA ARE
SEEING LOTS OF STARS RIGHT NOW. THESE QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND REALLY FROM THE LOOKS OF IT, TOMORROW SHOULD
BE JUST AS QUIET AS TODAY WAS ON THE RADAR. WE MIGHT GET A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, BUT I THINK THE
BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH
THAT HAS KIND OF ANCHORED ITSELF OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. OVERALL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US
SHOULD ACT TO KEEP US COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMS, BUT WITH A FEW
LESS CLOUDS, WE SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S (PLATEAU) AND MID
80S ELSEWHERE. MODELS ACTUALLY KEEP A SIMILAR PATTERN AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN, A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT THEY SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN (BEST CHANCE
EAST OF I-65), WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
I STILL SEE THURSDAY AS OUR TRANSITION DAY THIS WEEK, WHERE WE START
TO LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT BECOMES
MORE DISPERSE OVER THE REGION. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
BY FRIDAY, THE INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR EAST FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN, BUT WITH CONTINUED WEAKNESSES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN,
DIURNAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
SUGGEST A SLOW WARMUP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND FRIDAY MIGHT BE THE
FIRST DAY WE BREAK 90 IN A FEW SPOTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
BENIGN, SO THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW.
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND SHOULD BE MARKED BY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF
DIURNAL STORMS ONCE AGAIN AS MIDDLE TN REMAINS PINCHED BETWEEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGES. THIS MEANS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR DEGREE BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS. HEY, IF THERE'S ANY GOOD NEWS, WE SHOULDN'T BE LOOKING AT ANY
SEVERE STORMS AND IT WON'T BE RIDICULOUSLY HOT LIKE WE SAW LAST
WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS LINED UP TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SO WE REMAIN IN A COOL AND LARGELY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. CURRENTLY, MAINLY VFR CEILINGS ARE BLANKETING THE
MID STATE, BUT LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, MAINLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, WHERE WE ALSO EXPECT
SOME RADIATION FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT/CALM THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LOW
AND ARE NOT INCLUDED IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 69 87 70 89 / 10 10 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 67 87 68 88 / 10 20 10 10
CROSSVILLE 61 80 64 81 / 20 30 10 40
COLUMBIA 64 86 67 87 / 10 10 10 10
COOKEVILLE 65 82 67 83 / 20 20 10 40
JAMESTOWN 64 81 65 82 / 20 30 10 40
LAWRENCEBURG 63 84 66 86 / 10 10 10 10
MURFREESBORO 66 87 68 88 / 10 10 10 20
WAVERLY 66 87 68 87 / 10 10 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....ROSE
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