931
FXUS64 KOHX 051610
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1110 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1110 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
- AFTER SEVERAL COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYS, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
TO NORMAL LEVELS LATE THIS WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL BE TOLERABLE.
- A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST
DAYS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IS
VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
NO BIG CHANGES OR SURPRISES HAVE COME TO THE FORECAST TODAY. A
BROAD, WEAK TROUGH OVER THE REGION WAS KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN USUAL
AND GENERALLY LOW COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS. MUCH GREATER SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WAS NOTED FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
CAROLINAS WHERE DEEP MOISTURE WAS PRESENT WITH CONVERGING ONSHORE
FLOW.
OUR FORECAST WILL STAY MUCH THE SAME FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
UNDER THE WEAK, SLUGGISH TROUGH. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG. AFTERNOONS WILL BRING GENERALLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR BRIEF STORMS. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY AS A STRONG
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST, BUT ITS INCREASING INFLUENCE
WILL HELP RAISE TEMPERATURES. MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB JUST OVER 90
EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND. HUMIDITY WILL BE TOLERABLE BY AUGUST
STANDARDS, SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STAY BELOW TRIPLE DIGITS
THIS WEEKEND. THOSE INDEX VALUES MAY CRACK 100 NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. AS
TEMPS WARM UP, INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW BRIEF "STRONG" STORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.
THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED SEVERE WX WILL REMAIN VERY
LOW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
CIGS ARE VARYING MVFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR ALL
TERMINALS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, MAINLY
SOUTHEAST TODAY. CIGS WILL DIP AGAIN TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SOME VSBY IMPACTS FROM PATCHY FOG. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT COVERAGE/PROB TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 87 71 89 71 / 10 10 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 86 69 89 69 / 10 10 20 10
CROSSVILLE 80 64 82 64 / 30 20 40 30
COLUMBIA 86 67 88 68 / 10 10 20 10
COOKEVILLE 82 66 84 66 / 20 10 30 20
JAMESTOWN 81 65 83 65 / 40 20 40 20
LAWRENCEBURG 84 66 87 67 / 10 10 30 10
MURFREESBORO 86 69 89 68 / 10 10 30 10
WAVERLY 86 67 88 68 / 10 10 10 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....13
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