163
FXUS64 KOHX 070210
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
910 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 903 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
- AFTER SEVERAL COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK, AND A LITTLE WARMER NEXT
WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL BE TOLERABLE BUT CREEPING UPWARD.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, AND MAINLY
FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IS VERY
LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 903 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
MOST OF THE EARLIER ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AS
TEMPERATURES START TO COOL DOWN FROM WHAT WAS A VERY WARM
AFTERNOON ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OHX DOES
SHOW A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH SBCAPE VALUE OF 820 J/KG
AND A LIFTED INDEX OF -2. PRECIPITABLE WATER COMES IN AT 1.45",
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE DAILY MEAN VALUE CLIMATOLOGICALLY.
WE DO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OWING TO PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
THIS MAY BE A GOOD TIME TO CHECK ON THE MENTAL WELL-BEING OF ANY
METEOROLOGIST IN YOUR LIFE, SUFFERING FROM EXTREME BOREDOM UNDER
THE CURRENT WX PATTERN. THERE ARE NO CHANGES AND NO SURPRISES IN
TODAY'S FORECAST. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVERHEAD THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS BEING NUDGED OUT BY AN EXPANDING RIDGE
CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST. THIS CHANGE WILL END THE COOLER THAN
NORMAL PATTEN WE HAVE ENJOYED AND BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR STORMS EACH AFTERNOON,
MAINLY OVER THE PLATEAU. NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE
SOME PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
NEXT WEEK, A NEW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER
FLORIDA. THIS WILL NUDGE OUR TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR 2 HIGHER
AND ADD A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 100
IN SOME SPOTS, BUT AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAT
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY AND A
TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INCREASING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE (20 TO 40
PERCENT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK). THE ADDED INSTABILITY MAY YIELD A
FEW BRIEF STRONG STORMS WITH DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL THE SEVERE WX THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. EXCEPTIONS
SHOULD BE CSV/SRB WHERE IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 07Z
TONIGHT, RETURNED TO VFR 13-14Z TOMORROW. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE DOESN'T
WARRANT PREVAILING LINES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 71 92 72 92 / 20 10 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 69 91 69 92 / 20 10 0 10
CROSSVILLE 64 83 63 83 / 30 30 10 30
COLUMBIA 68 90 68 90 / 20 10 0 10
COOKEVILLE 66 85 67 86 / 20 20 0 20
JAMESTOWN 64 84 65 84 / 30 30 10 20
LAWRENCEBURG 68 89 68 89 / 20 20 0 10
MURFREESBORO 69 91 69 90 / 20 10 0 10
WAVERLY 68 90 69 91 / 20 10 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....UNGER
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