253
FXUS64 KOHX 071703
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1203 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1143 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AND NOT EXPECTED.
GREATEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE PLATEAU.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS WEEK, AND A LITTLE WARMER NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY
WILL BE TOLERABLE BUT CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE
7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
- THERE ARE VERY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT STARTING ON
MONDAY. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IS VERY LOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
THE MIDSTATE REMAINS IN WEAK N/NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. A WEAK MCV MOVING SOUTHEAST WILL HELP
INITIATE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40, AND ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MEAGER
INSTABILITY AROUND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS MCV WITH UNIMPRESSIVE
PW VALUES AND WEAK EBSHEAR AROUND 10 KT. WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE
SEVERITY. FOR THIS REASON, GENERAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS, AND A FEW ORDINARY PULSE THUNDERSTORMS, ARE ALL THAT IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
THE PREVAILING PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SIMILAR
AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS AND DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES (MAINLY
ACROSS THE PLATEAU). WITH THE CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT, THERE WILL
BE LIMITED CHANCES FOR REMNANT MCVS TO LOCALLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES, BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERN, MOISTURE-RICH
AIR WHICH WILL INCREASE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES PUSHING HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100F.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH LOW CHANCES OF TERMINAL IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY FOR SRB AND CSV. CONVECTION DECREASES AFTER
SUNSET WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 92 72 92 72 / 20 0 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 92 70 93 71 / 10 0 10 0
CROSSVILLE 83 64 84 65 / 30 10 20 0
COLUMBIA 90 69 91 70 / 20 10 10 0
COOKEVILLE 85 67 86 68 / 20 10 10 0
JAMESTOWN 84 65 84 66 / 30 10 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 89 69 89 69 / 20 10 10 0
MURFREESBORO 91 69 91 70 / 20 10 10 0
WAVERLY 91 69 91 70 / 20 0 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION.....99
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