640
FXUS64 KOHX 072308
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
608 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 602 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AND NOT EXPECTED.
GREATEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE PLATEAU.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS WEEK, AND A LITTLE WARMER NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY
WILL BE TOLERABLE BUT CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE
7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
- THERE ARE VERY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT STARTING ON
MONDAY. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IS VERY LOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
THE MIDSTATE REMAINS IN WEAK N/NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. A WEAK MCV MOVING SOUTHEAST WILL HELP
INITIATE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40, AND ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MEAGER
INSTABILITY AROUND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS MCV WITH UNIMPRESSIVE
PW VALUES AND WEAK EBSHEAR AROUND 10 KT. WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE
SEVERITY. FOR THIS REASON, GENERAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS, AND A FEW ORDINARY PULSE THUNDERSTORMS, ARE ALL THAT IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
THE PREVAILING PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SIMILAR
AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS AND DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES (MAINLY
ACROSS THE PLATEAU). WITH THE CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT, THERE WILL
BE LIMITED CHANCES FOR REMNANT MCVS TO LOCALLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES, BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERN, MOISTURE-RICH
AIR WHICH WILL INCREASE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES PUSHING HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100F.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHLIGHT CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR VISIBILITIES AT CSV AND SRB. FOG WILL DIMINISH AROUND 14Z
WITH VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
ANY TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS VERY LOW (15% OR LESS).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 72 92 72 92 / 10 10 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 70 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 64 84 64 85 / 10 20 0 20
COLUMBIA 69 91 69 91 / 10 10 0 10
COOKEVILLE 67 86 67 87 / 10 10 0 10
JAMESTOWN 65 84 65 86 / 10 20 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 69 89 68 90 / 10 10 0 10
MURFREESBORO 69 91 70 92 / 10 10 0 10
WAVERLY 69 91 70 92 / 0 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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