991
FXUS64 KOHX 280338
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1038 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1037 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
- HIGHS WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- GENERALLY DRY PATTERN, BUT VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY
SOUTHEAST HALF SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LOW RH VALUES AND DRY FUELS WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WORSENING DROUGHT LEVELS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
LONG WAVE TROUGHING IS SET UP OVER THE NORTHEAST US WITH A RIDGE
TO OUR WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION BUT
WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE SPINS AROUND THE APEX OF
THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THIS HAS BROUGHT HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION
AND THOSE CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND. THE MAIN FORCING WITH THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING MAINLY IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO
FIGHT LARGE AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS BEFORE PRODUCING
RAIN AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY PUSHING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN LOW BUT SHOULD NOT
FALL AS LOW AS THEY DID ON WEDNESDAY, WE SHOULD SEE THEM IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. THE SHORT
WAVE WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. AS IT DOES IT WILL
START TO ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS NORTH BUT THEY WILL STILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST IN TN STAYING UNDER 60. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY SNEAK INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. HIGHS WILL
START TO TICK UP SOME ALSO ON FRIDAY PUSHING BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETREAT FURTHER WEST AND AMPLIFY OVER
THE WEST COAST AS TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US.
THIS WILL KEEP THE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHORT WAVES WILL BE EMBED IN THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND WILL BRING LOW SHOWER CHANCES AT TIMES MAINLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER REMAINING
IN PLACE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 5 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 58 85 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 54 85 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 51 77 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 57 83 56 87 / 0 0 10 0
COOKEVILLE 54 78 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 51 77 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 55 81 56 85 / 0 0 10 10
MURFREESBORO 56 83 56 87 / 0 0 10 0
WAVERLY 57 83 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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