870
FXUS64 KOHX 282357
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
657 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 650 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
- AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH SEASONAL NORMALS FROM
TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AFTER WHICH TEMPERATURES WILL START
TO BACK OFF SOMEWHAT.
- A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES FROM LABOR DAY INTO THURSDAY, THEN
HOPEFULLY A DRY FIRST WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER.
- LOW RH VALUES AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE A MARGINAL FIRE DANGER
WITH WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WEST OF
I-65.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS PASSING TO
OUR WEST THIS EVENING. THIS HAS BROUGHT OVERCAST CLOUDS. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT IS REMAINING TO OUR WEST AND WILL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST, BUT STILL NO RETURN
FLOW IS ON THE WAY FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE JUST YET, SO TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE MID STATE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
BUT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL OWING TO THE DRY, STABLE AIR MASS
THAT HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY, BUT STILL QUITE PLEASANT OWING TO A
COOL MORNING AND LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WEST
OF I-65.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE
LOW, OR AT LEAST A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BUT THE ACTIVE WEATHER FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THUS
WE CAN EXPECT CONTINUED WARM AFTERNOONS AND PLEASANT MORNINGS
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST
ON MONDAY AND LOOK TO STICK AROUND AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND A DEEP SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION AND PROVIDES ADDED MOISTURE AND BETTER DYNAMICS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE ADDED CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO TREND BACK DOWNWARD STARTING ON LABOR DAY. THE 7-DAY
QPF TOTALS RANGE FROM JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AROUND
DOVER TO OVER 1.5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.
THUS, DESPITE THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK, THERE DOESN'T
APPEAR TO BE ANY RELIEF IN SIGHT FOR THE BURGEONING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THAT ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT AREAS WEST OF I-65.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TN. WINDS ARE LIGHT &
VARIABLE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, THOUGH SHOULD FAVOR AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION ~5 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 59 90 63 89 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 56 90 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 54 81 57 81 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 57 89 61 89 / 0 0 10 10
COOKEVILLE 56 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 55 81 56 81 / 0 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 56 87 60 87 / 0 0 10 10
MURFREESBORO 56 88 60 89 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 57 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......MUELLER
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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