717
FXUS64 KOHX 311109
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
609 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 609 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
- DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES LABOR DAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT
DROUGHT LEVELS WILL WORSEN FOR SOME AREAS.
- SHOT OF COOL AND DRY AIR LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. AFTER A
PLEASANT START IN THE 50S, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S. SATURDAY HAD FULL SUNSHINE, BUT SUNDAY WILL BRING BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS, SO THAT MAY SHAVE A DEGREE OR 2 OFF HIGH TEMPS. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL STAY LOW WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST BREEZE.
GENERALLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LABOR
DAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL FORM BRINGING LOW CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SHOWER WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR, BUT
NOTHING TO GET EXCITED ABOUT IN TERMS OF HELPING THE WORSENING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
COMING DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE TN VALLEY. SURFACE
PATTERNS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK, SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH
ORGANIZATION TO THE SHOWERS. MODELS VARY A BIT WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES, SO SPECIFIC TIMING FORECASTS FOR SHOWERS SEEM
UNRELIABLE AT THIS POINT. RIGHT NOW THE GREATEST RAIN POTENTIAL
IS SHOWN TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE COMING RAINFALL MAY BE TOO LIMITED IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TO DO MUCH FOR DROUGHT LEVELS. MAYBE SOME SPOTS
WILL HAVE A LITTLE RELIEF. WPC RAINFALL FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT
7 DAYS ARE SHOWING MOSTLY LESS THAN 1 INCH TOTALS. MAINLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH HEATING AND INSTABILITY FOR A SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
STORMS AT THIS TIME.
BY FRIDAY, A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A SHOT OF COOL AND DRY AIR TO END THE
WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED AND LOWS WILL
DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH BKN HIGH CLOUDS
AND NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 87 61 87 64 / 0 0 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 86 57 88 61 / 0 0 10 10
CROSSVILLE 80 57 76 57 / 0 0 30 20
COLUMBIA 87 60 88 62 / 0 0 30 20
COOKEVILLE 81 60 80 59 / 0 0 30 30
JAMESTOWN 80 57 77 58 / 0 0 30 20
LAWRENCEBURG 85 60 85 61 / 0 0 30 30
MURFREESBORO 86 60 86 62 / 0 0 30 30
WAVERLY 85 57 88 60 / 0 0 10 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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