134
FXUS64 KOHX 311536
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1036 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1022 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
- EXPECT RAIN-FREE WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FROM LABOR DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- EXPECT COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK OWING TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY A FEW DEGREES LATER IN THE
WEEK AND WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS SITUATED JUST WEST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS MORNING WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION, HENCE THE LIGHT ECHOES THAT WERE SHOWING UP EARLIER OVER
WEST TENNESSEE. WE DON'T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES
TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR THE MID STATE, BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES DO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TOMORROW AS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
LITTLE LOWER BEGINNING TODAY AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS AS
A RESULT OF THAT SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH. AND TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY'S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR MIDDLE TENNESSE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
FOCUSED AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS UPSTREAM AND ROTATES
THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE QPF VALUES AREN'T EXCESSIVE, THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD NONETHELESS PROMISES TO BE THE RAINIEST
PERIOD DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY STRETCH, AFTER WHICH
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO DROP OFF TO NEAR NOTHING. AT THIS TIME, THE
07Z NBM GIVES US A 72% PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT BNA
FROM 12Z TUESDAY UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY, WITH A 42% OF 0.5"+ AND A
28% CHANCE OF 1"+. MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, BUT WITH LOWER QPF. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL
RETURN TO THOSE COOLER READINGS THAT WE ENJOYED LAST WEEK, WITH
WARMER WEATHER RETURNING ONCE OUR RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF. BUT IF
THIS WEEKEND HAS BEEN PLEASANT, AN EARLY PEEK AT NEXT WEEKEND
SUGGESTS THAT WE'LL ENJOY IT EVEN MORE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH BKN HIGH CLOUDS
AND NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 87 61 86 64 / 0 0 30 40
CLARKSVILLE 86 57 88 63 / 0 0 10 30
CROSSVILLE 80 58 76 58 / 0 0 30 40
COLUMBIA 87 60 86 63 / 0 0 30 40
COOKEVILLE 81 60 80 61 / 0 0 30 40
JAMESTOWN 80 57 78 59 / 0 0 20 40
LAWRENCEBURG 85 59 84 61 / 0 0 40 40
MURFREESBORO 86 60 86 62 / 0 0 30 40
WAVERLY 85 57 87 61 / 0 0 10 30
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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