928
FXUS64 KOHX 312319
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
619 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 613 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FROM LABOR DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- EXPECT COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK OWING TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY A FEW DEGREES LATER IN THE
WEEK AND WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
PUSHED OUT A GRID UPDATE IN THE 4 O'CLOCK HOUR TO ADJUST HOURLY
DEW POINTS. WE MIXED OUT LOWER THAN OUR LOWEST GUIDANCE WEST OF
I-65 TODAY. THAT HELPED PROVIDE AN AMAZING DAY, BUT MAN IS IT
GETTING CRUNCHY OUT THERE. WE'LL GET A LITTLE RELIEF OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, BUT WITH ONLY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY, THAT SURE ISN'T MUCH. IN ANY EVENT, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE THE RAIN, SO GET OUT THERE AND ENJOY THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY!
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS SITUATED JUST WEST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS MORNING WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION, HENCE THE LIGHT ECHOES THAT WERE SHOWING UP EARLIER OVER
WEST TENNESSEE. WE DON'T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES
TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR THE MID STATE, BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES DO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TOMORROW AS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A
LITTLE LOWER BEGINNING TODAY AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS AS
A RESULT OF THAT SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH. AND TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY'S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR MIDDLE TENNESSE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
FOCUSED AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS UPSTREAM AND ROTATES
THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE QPF VALUES AREN'T EXCESSIVE, THE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD NONETHELESS PROMISES TO BE THE RAINIEST
PERIOD DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY STRETCH, AFTER WHICH
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO DROP OFF TO NEAR NOTHING. AT THIS TIME, THE
07Z NBM GIVES US A 72% PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT BNA
FROM 12Z TUESDAY UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY, WITH A 42% OF 0.5"+ AND A
28% CHANCE OF 1"+. MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, BUT WITH LOWER QPF. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL
RETURN TO THOSE COOLER READINGS THAT WE ENJOYED LAST WEEK, WITH
WARMER WEATHER RETURNING ONCE OUR RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF. BUT IF
THIS WEEKEND HAS BEEN PLEASANT, AN EARLY PEEK AT NEXT WEEKEND
SUGGESTS THAT WE'LL ENJOY IT EVEN MORE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE AS VERY DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE. LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL
PRECLUDE ANY INCLUSION IN THIS SET OF MID-STATE TAFS. LOOK FOR
LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE, BUT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH
TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 86 64 80 / 0 30 40 60
CLARKSVILLE 57 88 63 80 / 0 10 30 50
CROSSVILLE 58 76 58 72 / 0 30 40 50
COLUMBIA 60 86 63 80 / 0 30 40 60
COOKEVILLE 60 80 61 74 / 0 30 40 50
JAMESTOWN 57 78 59 72 / 0 20 40 50
LAWRENCEBURG 59 84 61 78 / 0 40 40 60
MURFREESBORO 60 86 62 79 / 0 30 40 60
WAVERLY 57 87 61 80 / 0 10 30 60
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......UNGER
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....UNGER
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