969
FXUS64 KOHX 030408
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1108 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1038 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
- DRY WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND.
- LOW CHANCE (20-30%) RAIN COULD RETURN BY MONDAY/TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK.
- A PATTERN SHIFT NEXT WEEK WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
CALM CONDITIONS PERSIST TONIGHT WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS
FILTERED INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES ARE A WHOLE 0.10" LESS ON
TONIGHT'S SOUNDING VS LAST NIGHT'S SOUNDING, AND YOU CAN FEEL THE
DIFFERENCE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RADIATION FOG THIS EVENING AS
SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 7 MPH
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE
EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE 3 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER, IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S, WITH LOW HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING CLOUDS,
TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
FESTIVITIES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GO ON WITHOUT ANY INTERRUPTIONS FROM
MOTHER NATURE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OCCUPYING THE NORTHEAST
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LOCALLY THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND, KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AROUND. TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR 90
DEGREES WEST OF THE PLATEAU BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY,
OUR VARIABLE WINDS AT 500MB WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SSE AND INCREASE
TO NEAR 15 KTS, HELPING INFUSE GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE BREAKDOWN OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALLOW FOR RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO MAKE A RETURN TO MIDDLE TN
STARTING MONDAY WITH LOW CHANCES AROUND 20% CURRENTLY FORECAST.
CHANCES CREEP UP ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO 35-40%. LONG TERM
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY. THOUGH IT IS STILL A WAYS OUT, THE CURRENT MODELS AND
SOUNDINGS DO NOT FAVOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH OVERALL
POOR PARAMETERS AND AN UNFAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME THANKFULLY RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES, AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR THE HIGHS AND 50S TO 60S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WE
CAN LOOK FORWARD TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS THE NEXT 24 HRS. WITH VFR WX
EXCEPT FOR OVERNIGHT DENSE RADIATION FOG AND LOW STRATUS AT KSRB.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 60 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 61 86 57 87 / 10 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 52 77 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 57 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 56 79 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 55 78 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 56 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 58 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 59 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....ROSE
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