481
FXUS64 KOHX 032323
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
623 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 619 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
- DRY WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- LOW CHANCE (20-40%) RAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
A PESKY SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE JUST NORTH OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING, SO EXPECT CONTINUED VFR WX AND LIGHT/CALM
WIND. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KSRB, WHERE WE'VE INCLUDED SOME
RADIATION FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
A VERY FAMILIAR WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WITH DRY CONDITIONS, WARM DAYS, AND PLEASANT NIGHTS. A SPRAWLING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES WITH A DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGHS WILL RE-CENTER AND STACK UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL BRING US SLIGHT WARMING EACH DAY.
IT WILL ALSO SET UP INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HUMIDITY FOR SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND MOISTURE COMES UP FORM
THE SOUTH, WE WILL START TO SEE SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY, AND
MORE SO TUESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT
DURING THIS TIME. A FEW MODELS SHOW SOME DECENT POCKETS OF RAIN,
BUT MOST MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A LOT OF FORCING TO WORK WITH THE
MOISTURE, SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE.
AVERAGE MODEL RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE
SHOWING LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. CHANCES MAY CLIMB A LITTLE
MORE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND A
COLD FRONT, BUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH
ARE SHOWN. FORECAST PARAMETERS ALSO DO NOT SHOW MUCH RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OR ANY SEVERE THREAT. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, LATE
WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER, BUT STILL LEANING TOWARD THE
WARM SIDE OF NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS, GENERALLY OUT
OF THE SE. LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MIDDLE TN 06Z
TO 12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 59 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 58 86 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 52 78 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 55 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 55 81 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 55 79 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 55 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 56 84 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 58 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....ROSE
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