859
FXUS64 KOHX 040421
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1121 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1112 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
- DRY WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
- LOW CHANCE (20-40%) RAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS MIDDLE TN. WE
ENJOYED LOWER HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR HAS CONTINUED TO
ADVECT IN OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS. PWAT VALUES ARE NOW DOWN A TOTAL
OF 0.20" SINCE WEDNESDAY WITH A MEASURED VALUE OF 0.89" ON THE
00Z OHX SOUNDING. TO OUR SOUTH, A DISTURBANCE SITS OVER THE GULF
THAT IS RESULTING IN AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS THAT BUILDS NORTH
OVER ALABAMA AND EAST TN, SO EXPECT SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FOG.
SATURDAY'S FORECAST WILL BE MORE OR LESS THE SAME AS TODAY'S EXCEPT
WE MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE
ESE, PULLING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER, TOO, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS GREAT WITH LOWS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SURGE IN MOISTURE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A PATTERN
SHIFT AS MID-LEVEL FLOW TAKES A SOUTHEASTERLY TURN AND INCREASES
TO NEAR 15 KTS. MONDAY WILL FEATURE OUR FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
THE WEEK, THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW AROUND 20-30% AS UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN HOW MUCH UMPH THE FRONT LIFTING FROM THE GULF WILL HAVE
BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT HERE. TROUGHING DEVELOPING OUT WEST WILL
START PUSHING IN BY TUESDAY, AND WITH THE SURGE IN MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING, WE WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE STILL QUESTIONABLE
AS FORCING DOESN'T LOOK ALL THAT GREAT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY THAT WILL
BRING A BETTER, MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN TO ALL OF MIDDLE
TN. AGAIN THOUGH, THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LOWER-THAN-WE'D-LIKE RAINFALL TOTALS. ENSEMBLES RIGHT NOW ARE
CURRENTLY ONLY YIELDING A HALF INCH OR LESS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GEFS 1 INCH OR GREATER PROBABILITIES RIGHT NOW IS ONLY
AT 20%, SO CURRENTLY, THESE SHOWERS AREN'T LOOKING LIKE THE
DROUGHT-BUSTING TYPE. WHAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO ENJOY, THOUGH, IS
COOLER, MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT AS AFTERNOON
HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW 70S AFTER WEDNESDAY. A FEW POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER, BUT THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR THE
MOST PART BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS, GENERALLY OUT
OF THE SE. LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MIDDLE TN 06Z
TO 12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 59 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 58 86 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 52 78 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 55 84 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 55 81 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 55 79 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 55 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 56 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 58 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....ROSE
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