621
FXUS64 KOHX 041647
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1147 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
- DRY WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
- FORECAST RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WETTEST DAY
OVERALL WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH (50 TO 80 PERCENT) RAIN CHANCES.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL KEEP OUR WX NICE AND DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. DAYTIMES WILL BE SUNNY AND VERY WARM, PERHAPS TOUCHING
90 IN SOME SPOTS SUNDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND SEASONABLY
COOL WITH LOWS MOSTLY FROM 55 TO 60. A FEW PATCHES OF LATE NIGHT
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
DEPARTURE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO INCREASE, BRINGING A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65.
MODELS VARY WITH HOW VIGOROUS LIFT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME, THUS
MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS.
GENERALLY, THE RAIN LOOKS SCATTERED WITH AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER INCH. HOWEVER, A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING
POCKETS OF 1 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR WEST COUNTIES. THIS
POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY IS LESS THAN 20
PERCENT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB OVER 1.7" WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. LIFT DOES NOT LOOK VERY
STRONG OR FOCUSED, BUT WITH GOOD MOISTURE DEPTH AND INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE COLUMN, SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65, COULD
HAVE DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAIN APPROACHING ONE INCH ON TUESDAY. SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE
UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES, BUT THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN WETTER.
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS SOME SPOTS WILL HAVE DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHILE OTHERS DO NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH. TO ALL
THOSE WHO WANT SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE DRYNESS, MAY THE ODDS
BE EVER IN YOUR FAVOR.
AFTER THE FRONT, COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS
LATE WEEK. THE PATTERN LOOKS MOSTLY QUIET, BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
GROUND AND RIVER VALLEY FOG BLOSSOMED OVERNIGHT DESPITE
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS RECENTLY. THIS IS AFFECTING ALL SITES
EXCEPT BNA AT THIS HOUR, THOUGH SOME ACCESS TO CAMERAS SHOW FOG IS
RELATIVELY PATCHY AND SHALLOW (SUCH AS AT SRB WHERE THE RUNWAY IS
CLEAR). EITHER WAY, VIS IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY ~14Z. WINDS
PREVAIL SE TODAY AT 5-8 KTS WITH A FEW PASSING CLOUDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 86 61 88 66 / 0 0 0 30
CLARKSVILLE 87 59 88 65 / 0 0 0 30
CROSSVILLE 77 55 78 61 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 84 59 86 66 / 0 0 10 30
COOKEVILLE 81 58 82 63 / 0 0 0 20
JAMESTOWN 80 55 81 60 / 0 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 82 59 84 64 / 0 0 10 20
MURFREESBORO 84 60 86 65 / 0 0 10 20
WAVERLY 84 60 85 64 / 0 0 0 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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