915
FXUS64 KOHX 041656
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1156 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1153 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
- DRY WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
- FORECAST RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WETTEST DAY
OVERALL WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH (50 TO 80 PERCENT) RAIN CHANCES.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL KEEP OUR WX NICE AND DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. DAYTIMES WILL BE SUNNY AND VERY WARM, PERHAPS TOUCHING
90 IN SOME SPOTS SUNDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND SEASONABLY
COOL WITH LOWS MOSTLY FROM 55 TO 60. A FEW PATCHES OF LATE NIGHT
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
DEPARTURE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO INCREASE, BRINGING A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65.
MODELS VARY WITH HOW VIGOROUS LIFT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME, THUS
MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS.
GENERALLY, THE RAIN LOOKS SCATTERED WITH AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER INCH. HOWEVER, A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING
POCKETS OF 1 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR WEST COUNTIES. THIS
POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY IS LESS THAN 20
PERCENT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB OVER 1.7" WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. LIFT DOES NOT LOOK VERY
STRONG OR FOCUSED, BUT WITH GOOD MOISTURE DEPTH AND INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE COLUMN, SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65, COULD
HAVE DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAIN APPROACHING ONE INCH ON TUESDAY. SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE
UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES, BUT THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN WETTER.
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS SOME SPOTS WILL HAVE DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHILE OTHERS DO NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH. TO ALL
THOSE WHO WANT SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE DRYNESS, MAY THE ODDS
BE EVER IN YOUR FAVOR.
AFTER THE FRONT, COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS
LATE WEEK. THE PATTERN LOOKS MOSTLY QUIET, BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
AREAS OF FOG HAVE MIXED OUT THROUGH THE MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. SOME MID CLOUDS STREAM OVERHEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECTING LOW CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT,
LESS COVERAGE THAN LAST NIGHT IN GENERAL. LIGHT SE WINDS THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY, THEN GUSTS INCREASE UP TO 20 MPH AFTER 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 88 66 85 / 0 0 30 30
CLARKSVILLE 59 88 65 82 / 0 0 30 40
CROSSVILLE 55 78 61 78 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBIA 59 86 66 83 / 0 10 30 30
COOKEVILLE 58 82 63 80 / 0 0 20 20
JAMESTOWN 55 81 60 79 / 0 0 10 20
LAWRENCEBURG 59 84 64 82 / 0 10 20 20
MURFREESBORO 60 86 65 84 / 0 10 20 20
WAVERLY 60 85 64 81 / 0 0 40 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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