752
FXUS64 KOHX 042348
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
648 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 646 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
- DRY WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
- FORECAST RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WETTEST DAY
OVERALL WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH (50 TO 80 PERCENT) RAIN CHANCES.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS MIDDLE TN, AND NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLATEAU. ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL, BUT
STILL VERY WARM, DAY IS ON TAP SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE MID AND UPPER-80S WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL KEEP OUR WX NICE AND DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. DAYTIMES WILL BE SUNNY AND VERY WARM, PERHAPS TOUCHING
90 IN SOME SPOTS SUNDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND SEASONABLY
COOL WITH LOWS MOSTLY FROM 55 TO 60. A FEW PATCHES OF LATE NIGHT
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
DEPARTURE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO INCREASE, BRINGING A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65.
MODELS VARY WITH HOW VIGOROUS LIFT WILL BE DURING THIS TIME, THUS
MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS.
GENERALLY, THE RAIN LOOKS SCATTERED WITH AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER INCH. HOWEVER, A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING
POCKETS OF 1 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR WEST COUNTIES. THIS
POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY IS LESS THAN 20
PERCENT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB OVER 1.7" WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE. LIFT DOES NOT LOOK VERY
STRONG OR FOCUSED, BUT WITH GOOD MOISTURE DEPTH AND INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE COLUMN, SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65, COULD
HAVE DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAIN APPROACHING ONE INCH ON TUESDAY. SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE
UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES, BUT THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN WETTER.
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS SOME SPOTS WILL HAVE DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHILE OTHERS DO NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH. TO ALL
THOSE WHO WANT SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE DRYNESS, MAY THE ODDS
BE EVER IN YOUR FAVOR.
AFTER THE FRONT, COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS
LATE WEEK. THE PATTERN LOOKS MOSTLY QUIET, BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
A PESKY SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
AFFECTING MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING, SO THE TAFS ARE ONCE
AGAIN VFR (WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF OVERNIGHT RADIATION FOG
AT KSRB). TOMORROW, EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO RIGHT UP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 88 67 84 / 0 0 10 30
CLARKSVILLE 59 89 65 80 / 0 0 10 40
CROSSVILLE 55 78 60 78 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBIA 59 85 65 83 / 0 0 10 30
COOKEVILLE 58 82 63 80 / 0 0 10 20
JAMESTOWN 56 80 60 78 / 0 0 10 20
LAWRENCEBURG 59 84 64 81 / 0 0 10 20
MURFREESBORO 59 86 65 84 / 0 0 10 20
WAVERLY 60 85 65 80 / 0 0 10 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....ROSE
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