597
FXUS64 KOHX 050335
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1035 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1026 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
OF 60-80%. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA INTO SUNDAY,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER NICE DAY TO END THE WEEKEND. NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES CONTRIBUTING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER-80S.
BUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST WHICH IN TURNS ALLOWS FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP
OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS GULF MOISTURE
UP INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL START TO INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES AS
WE START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOW RAIN CHANCES START TO BUILD
PRIMARILY WEST OF I-65 SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO
AROUND 30-40% DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS THE SAME AREA WITH
LOWER CHANCES TOWARDS THE EAST. THIS SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW PWATS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6-1.75 INCHES WHICH IS ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DESPITE THIS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SOURCE, THERE IS STILL A LACK OF STRONG OVERALL
FORCING. AND AS CAMS START TO COME INTO VIEW FOR THIS TIME FRAME,
THEY SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH PROBABILITIES
OF RECEIVING MORE THAN 0.25" LOW. WITH THAT SAID, THERE MAY STILL
BE ISOLATED AREAS THAT PICK UP MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN
THANKS TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, BUT THIS PROBABILITY
IS AROUND 20% FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH PWATS RANGING FROM
1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES - STILL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. FORCING
INCREASES THOUGH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO 60-80% TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS ADDED
FORCING, THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER RAIN
AMOUNTS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TOTALS EXCEEDING
ONE INCH GENERALLY RANGE FROM 40-60% WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TN.
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH JUST LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA
STARTING ON THURSDAY. EVEN BETTER NEWS THOUGH IS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL DOWN POST-FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND LOOK TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
A PESKY SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
AFFECTING MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING, SO THE TAFS ARE ONCE
AGAIN VFR (WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF OVERNIGHT RADIATION FOG
AT KSRB). TOMORROW, EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO RIGHT UP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 61 88 67 85 / 0 0 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 59 88 65 82 / 0 0 10 40
CROSSVILLE 55 78 60 79 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBIA 59 86 65 84 / 0 0 20 20
COOKEVILLE 58 82 63 81 / 0 0 10 10
JAMESTOWN 56 80 60 80 / 0 0 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 59 84 64 83 / 0 0 10 10
MURFREESBORO 59 86 66 85 / 0 0 10 10
WAVERLY 60 85 64 80 / 0 0 20 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....ROSE
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