812
FXUS64 KOHX 052346
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
646 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 639 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
- RAIN CHANCES BEGIN BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF 60-90% SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- COOLER THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK WHEN SEASONALLY NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
THE CENTER OF AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST, HELPING TO SET UP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE
TN THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES CLIMB STARTING
TONIGHT. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS TONIGHT WITH JUST LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. THE MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSES
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TN TOMORROW WITH CAMS INDICATING THAT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. DESPITE THE ADDED MOISTURE, A
LACK OF FORCING WILL LIMIT RAIN AMOUNTS TOMORROW. THE LATEST HREF
PUTS A LESS THAN 15% PROBABILITY THAT RAIN TOTALS AMOUNT TO MORE
THAN 0.5 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN RIVER. OTHERWISE, CLOUD
COVER WILL AID IN COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER-70S TO LOW-80S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED ITS INFLUENCE SUNDAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE DOORSTEP WITH
A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES COMING THIS WEEK.
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR ALL
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO RECEIVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FOR TONIGHT, DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BUILD PRIMARILY WEST
OF I-65 LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY, THEN CHANCES
INCREASE TO 40-60% DAYTIME MONDAY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-65. CHANCES
WILL BE LOW FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65. THE INCOMING SURGE OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW PWATS TO INCREASE UP TO 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DESPITE THIS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE SOURCE, LIFT WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE ON MONDAY, SO
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL START OUT LIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH AREA-WIDE PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES, WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT, SO RAINFALL RATES AND
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THE CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING ONE INCH GENERALLY RANGE FROM 40-60%
WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MIDDLE TN.
THE DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG CAPE THROUGH
THE COLUMN COULD BRING LOCAL MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE NBM
CHANCE OF RECEIVING MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS IN THE
20-40% RANGE, SO SOME SPOTS MAY GET SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE
ON-GOING DRY PATTERN.
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL SHUT OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER
WITH THIS PASSAGE. A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THE AIR MASS CHANGE WILL BE CERTAINLY
BE FELT WITH NORTH WINDS AND HIGHS LIMITED TO THE 70S.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER FOR LATE WEEK WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THIS INCLUDES LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S BY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S, EXCEPT
60S PLATEAU. A FEW LITTLE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE WEEK
AS A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION, BUT OVERALL,
FORECASTS ARE POINTING TOWARD A LOVELY FALL WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
IT LOOKS LIKE A BREAK TO OUR DRY PATTERN IS COMING UP SOON. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST WILL BRING MUCH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TOMORROW.
FOR NOW, WE'VE INCLUDED -RA FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIOD FOR
OUR NON-PLATEAU TAFS, ALTHOUGH IT'S LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WON'T BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBY'S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 67 83 68 82 / 30 50 50 70
CLARKSVILLE 66 80 67 79 / 20 60 70 90
CROSSVILLE 60 78 62 77 / 10 10 20 50
COLUMBIA 66 81 68 82 / 30 50 40 70
COOKEVILLE 63 81 65 78 / 10 20 30 60
JAMESTOWN 60 79 63 77 / 10 10 30 60
LAWRENCEBURG 65 81 66 81 / 20 40 30 60
MURFREESBORO 65 84 68 83 / 20 30 30 70
WAVERLY 65 78 66 78 / 40 70 70 80
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....ROSE
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