302
FXUS64 KOHX 060338
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1038 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1022 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
- RAIN CHANCES BEGIN BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF 60-90%. FLOOD THREAT IS LOW.
- COOLER THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK WHEN SEASONALLY NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE
UP FROM THE GULF. INDEED, MOISTURE VALUES ARE ON THE RISE WITH THE
PWAT ON THIS EVENING'S SOUNDING AT 1.34 INCHES - UP FROM 0.72
INCHES 24 HOURS AGO. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH
PWATS FORECAST TO REACH 1.7-1.8 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL MEAN THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
RISE. FOR TONIGHT, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW AT LESS THAN 20% FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. BUT AS THE MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TN, THIS WILL BE THE AREA WHERE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TO 30-50% THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE MOISTURE IS
ABUNDANT (ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE), WHAT'S MISSING
IS A SOURCE OF LIFT. SO WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY WEST OF I-65
MONDAY, RAIN TOTALS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE.
HREF PROBABILITIES FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN 0.25 INCHES IS LOW AT
15-30% FOR AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
BY TUESDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TRACKING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO APPROACH MIDDLE
TN FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT'S THIS FRONT THAT WILL PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY LIFT TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO 60-90% TUESDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH RAIN TOTALS. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS LOOK TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST WHERE
PROBABILITIES THAT AMOUNTS EXCEED 1 INCH BY TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
AROUND 60-75% WITH THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING AT LEAST 2 INCHES
AROUND 30-45%.
THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT IS LOW THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE PROGRESSING QUICKLY, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED
PROFILES WITH RELATIVELY LOW CAPE PROFILES. HOWEVER, THIS
ABNORMALLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL STILL LEND ITSELF TO EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES WHICH MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.
NEVERTHELESS, THIS LOOKS TO BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN EVENT FOR THOSE
IN DROUGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FASTER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH
IT NOW BEING FAVORED TO CLEAR MIDDLE TN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO
THIS, RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN WEDNESDAY POST-FRONT. A
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS THEN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES KEEPING LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
MAINLY FOR THE PLATEAU THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE BETTER NEWS WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE POST-FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND INTO THE 70S
ELSEWHERE. MORNINGS MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE CHILLY AS LOW TEMPERATURES
MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR THE PLATEAU.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
IT LOOKS LIKE A BREAK TO OUR DRY PATTERN IS COMING UP SOON. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST WILL BRING MUCH
DEEPER MOISTURE TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TOMORROW.
FOR NOW, WE'VE INCLUDED -RA FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIOD FOR
OUR NON-PLATEAU TAFS, ALTHOUGH IT'S LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WON'T BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VSBY'S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 67 83 69 80 / 30 50 60 90
CLARKSVILLE 66 80 67 77 / 20 70 80 90
CROSSVILLE 60 78 63 76 / 10 10 30 70
COLUMBIA 66 81 68 80 / 30 50 40 80
COOKEVILLE 63 81 66 77 / 10 20 40 90
JAMESTOWN 60 80 64 76 / 10 20 40 80
LAWRENCEBURG 65 81 66 80 / 20 40 40 80
MURFREESBORO 65 83 68 81 / 20 30 40 90
WAVERLY 65 76 66 77 / 30 70 70 90
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....ROSE
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