715
FXUS64 KOHX 061130
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
630 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 630 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
- RAIN CHANCES BEGIN BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF 60-90%. FLOOD THREAT IS LOW.
- COOLER THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK WHEN SEASONALLY NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE
UP FROM THE GULF. INDEED, MOISTURE VALUES ARE ON THE RISE WITH THE
PWAT ON THIS EVENING'S SOUNDING AT 1.34 INCHES - UP FROM 0.72
INCHES 24 HOURS AGO. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH
PWATS FORECAST TO REACH 1.7-1.8 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL MEAN THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
RISE. FOR TONIGHT, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW AT LESS THAN 20% FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. BUT AS THE MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TN, THIS WILL BE THE AREA WHERE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TO 30-50% THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE MOISTURE IS
ABUNDANT (ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE), WHAT'S MISSING
IS A SOURCE OF LIFT. SO WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY WEST OF I-65
MONDAY, RAIN TOTALS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE.
HREF PROBABILITIES FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN 0.25 INCHES IS LOW AT
15-30% FOR AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
BY TUESDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TRACKING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO APPROACH MIDDLE
TN FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT'S THIS FRONT THAT WILL PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY LIFT TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO 60-90% TUESDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH RAIN TOTALS. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS LOOK TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST WHERE
PROBABILITIES THAT AMOUNTS EXCEED 1 INCH BY TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
AROUND 60-75% WITH THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING AT LEAST 2 INCHES
AROUND 30-45%.
THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT IS LOW THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE PROGRESSING QUICKLY, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED
PROFILES WITH RELATIVELY LOW CAPE PROFILES. HOWEVER, THIS
ABNORMALLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL STILL LEND ITSELF TO EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES WHICH MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.
NEVERTHELESS, THIS LOOKS TO BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN EVENT FOR THOSE
IN DROUGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FASTER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH
IT NOW BEING FAVORED TO CLEAR MIDDLE TN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO
THIS, RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN WEDNESDAY POST-FRONT. A
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS THEN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A
FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES KEEPING LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
MAINLY FOR THE PLATEAU THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE BETTER NEWS WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE POST-FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND INTO THE 70S
ELSEWHERE. MORNINGS MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE CHILLY AS LOW TEMPERATURES
MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR THE PLATEAU.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
VFR CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED TO BKN/OVC ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH LGT RAIN SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING. BNA, MQY, AND
CKV WILL HAVE PERIODS OF SHRA THROUGH THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MVFR
CIG POTENTIAL. ANY HEAVIER INTENSITY COULD ALSO CAUSE BRIEF
VISIBILITY ISSUES. A BREAK IN RAIN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT BNA
AND MQY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ADDITIONAL SHRA IS FORECAST AFTER 06Z,
POSSIBLY SRB AND CSV AS WELL. CKV MAY NOT HAVE MUCH OF A BREAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS FAVOR SE AT 5-10 KTS TODAY, WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON GUSTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 83 69 80 64 / 60 50 90 70
CLARKSVILLE 79 67 78 60 / 60 70 90 40
CROSSVILLE 76 64 76 62 / 10 20 50 90
COLUMBIA 80 68 80 65 / 60 30 80 70
COOKEVILLE 81 66 77 63 / 20 30 80 90
JAMESTOWN 79 64 75 62 / 10 40 70 90
LAWRENCEBURG 80 67 80 64 / 60 30 80 70
MURFREESBORO 82 69 81 65 / 50 30 80 80
WAVERLY 77 66 77 60 / 70 60 90 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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