981
FXUS64 KOHX 061557
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1057 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
- RAIN CHANCES HAVE RETURNED TO THE FORECAST TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. QPF VALUES ARE HIGHEST IN
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF NASHVILLE, BUT THE FLOODING
THREAT IS LOW.
- EXPECT COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK,
WHEN SEASONALLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AFTERWARDS,
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP.
- BOTH THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER PATTERN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS IS BREAKING DOWN AS A MOISTURE-LADEN SHORTWAVE IS
FINALLY SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES TODAY AND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE UNSEASONAL WARMTH THAT HAS BEEN THE NORM
THIS FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER. TOMORROW, THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME A
BIT MORE FOCUSED, SO QPF VALUES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL CYCLE. TOMORROW,
MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS UNDER A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AS PER THE WPC. AND, ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
WITH THIS ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM REMAINS VERY LOW, WE CAN EXPECT A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, SO WE CAN EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW LEFTOVER
STORMS TO LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
FINALLY CLEARING OUT. STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES FROM THIS MORNING AT
12Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT 18Z (54 HOURS) RANGE FROM LESS THAN AN
INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND AREAS NEAR THE
ALABAMA LINE TO 2+ INCHES IN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
NASHVILLE. FORTUNATELY, THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES LINE UP NICELY WITH
THE WORST OF THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS, SO IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL EVEN THINGS OUT A BIT. AT THIS
TIME, WE AREN'T THINKING ABOUT ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCH. IT DOESN'T
APPEAR THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THE KIND OF RAINFALL RATES WE
WOULD NEED TO PRODUCE FLOODING. IN OTHER WORDS, WE'RE LOOKING AT A
MUCH-NEEDED SOAKING RAIN IN THE AREAS THAT NEED IT MOST, AND
NOTHING MORE THAN THAT. AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING, OUR RAIN CHANCES
WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR-ZERO AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
OUR COOLEST DAY, THEN EXPECT READINGS TO WARM UP GRADUALLY
THEREAFTER. INDEED, BOTH THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FAVOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID STATE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
VFR CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED TO BKN/OVC ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH LGT RAIN SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING. BNA, MQY, AND
CKV WILL HAVE PERIODS OF SHRA THROUGH THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MVFR
CIG POTENTIAL. ANY HEAVIER INTENSITY COULD ALSO CAUSE BRIEF
VISIBILITY ISSUES. A BREAK IN RAIN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT BNA
AND MQY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ADDITIONAL SHRA IS FORECAST AFTER 06Z,
POSSIBLY SRB AND CSV AS WELL. CKV MAY NOT HAVE MUCH OF A BREAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS FAVOR SE AT 5-10 KTS TODAY, WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON GUSTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 83 69 80 63 / 60 70 90 80
CLARKSVILLE 79 68 78 60 / 80 90 90 30
CROSSVILLE 76 63 75 61 / 10 40 70 90
COLUMBIA 80 68 79 64 / 70 60 90 80
COOKEVILLE 81 66 77 62 / 30 50 80 80
JAMESTOWN 79 64 75 60 / 20 50 80 90
LAWRENCEBURG 80 67 79 63 / 50 50 80 80
MURFREESBORO 82 68 80 64 / 40 60 80 90
WAVERLY 77 66 77 59 / 80 90 90 40
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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