943
FXUS64 KOHX 062005
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
305 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 303 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
- RAIN CHANCES HAVE RETURNED TO THE FORECAST TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. QPF VALUES ARE HIGHEST IN
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF NASHVILLE, BUT THE FLOODING
THREAT IS LOW.
- EXPECT COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK,
WHEN SEASONALLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AFTERWARDS,
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP.
- BOTH THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
MOST OF THE EARLIER RADAR ECHOES HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, AND WE ARE LEFT WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE. WE CAN EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL START TO FILL IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z AND PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH HEAVIER CELLS THEN
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER PATTERN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS IS BREAKING DOWN AS A MOISTURE-LADEN SHORTWAVE IS
FINALLY SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES TODAY AND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE UNSEASONAL WARMTH THAT HAS BEEN THE NORM
THIS FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER. TOMORROW, THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME A
BIT MORE FOCUSED, SO QPF VALUES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL CYCLE. TOMORROW,
MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS UNDER A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AS PER THE WPC. AND, ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
WITH THIS ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM REMAINS VERY LOW, WE CAN EXPECT A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, SO WE CAN EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW LEFTOVER
STORMS TO LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
FINALLY CLEARING OUT. STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES FROM THIS MORNING AT
12Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT 18Z (54 HOURS) RANGE FROM LESS THAN AN
INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND AREAS NEAR THE
ALABAMA LINE TO 2+ INCHES IN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
NASHVILLE. FORTUNATELY, THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES LINE UP NICELY WITH
THE WORST OF THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS, SO IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL EVEN THINGS OUT A BIT. AT THIS
TIME, WE AREN'T THINKING ABOUT ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCH. IT DOESN'T
APPEAR THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THE KIND OF RAINFALL RATES WE
WOULD NEED TO PRODUCE FLOODING. IN OTHER WORDS, WE'RE LOOKING AT A
MUCH-NEEDED SOAKING RAIN IN THE AREAS THAT NEED IT MOST, AND
NOTHING MORE THAN THAT. AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING, OUR RAIN CHANCES
WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR-ZERO AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
OUR COOLEST DAY, THEN EXPECT READINGS TO WARM UP GRADUALLY
THEREAFTER. INDEED, BOTH THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FAVOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID STATE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH THROUGH MIDDLE TN, AND NOW MOSTLY LIMITED
TO NORTH OF I-40. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL, MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR THIS AFTERNOON, EXCLUDING ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE DIRECTLY OVER
TERMINALS. CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER BACK TO MVFR AFTER 06Z TONIGHT,
WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEST OF I-65. SHOWERS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 09Z TONIGHT AND WORK THEIR WAY NE ACROSS
MIDDLE TN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 69 80 63 76 / 70 90 80 10
CLARKSVILLE 68 78 60 75 / 90 90 30 0
CROSSVILLE 63 75 61 70 / 40 70 90 20
COLUMBIA 68 79 64 75 / 60 90 80 10
COOKEVILLE 66 77 62 71 / 50 80 80 10
JAMESTOWN 64 75 60 69 / 50 80 90 20
LAWRENCEBURG 67 79 63 74 / 50 80 80 10
MURFREESBORO 68 80 64 75 / 60 80 90 10
WAVERLY 66 77 59 73 / 90 90 40 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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