808
FXUS64 KOHX 062305
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
605 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 555 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
- RAIN CHANCES HAVE RETURNED TO THE FORECAST TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. QPF VALUES ARE HIGHEST IN
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF NASHVILLE, BUT THE FLOODING
THREAT IS LOW.
- EXPECT COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK,
WHEN SEASONALLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AFTERWARDS,
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP.
- BOTH THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER PATTERN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS IS BREAKING DOWN AS A MOISTURE-LADEN SHORTWAVE IS
FINALLY SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES TODAY AND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE UNSEASONAL WARMTH THAT HAS BEEN THE NORM
THIS FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER. TOMORROW, THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME A
BIT MORE FOCUSED, SO QPF VALUES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL CYCLE. TOMORROW,
MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS UNDER A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AS PER THE WPC. AND, ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
WITH THIS ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM REMAINS VERY LOW, WE CAN EXPECT A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, SO WE CAN EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW LEFTOVER
STORMS TO LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
FINALLY CLEARING OUT. STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES FROM THIS MORNING AT
12Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT 18Z (54 HOURS) RANGE FROM LESS THAN AN
INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND AREAS NEAR THE
ALABAMA LINE TO 2+ INCHES IN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
NASHVILLE. FORTUNATELY, THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES LINE UP NICELY WITH
THE WORST OF THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS, SO IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL EVEN THINGS OUT A BIT. AT THIS
TIME, WE AREN'T THINKING ABOUT ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCH. IT DOESN'T
APPEAR THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THE KIND OF RAINFALL RATES WE
WOULD NEED TO PRODUCE FLOODING. IN OTHER WORDS, WE'RE LOOKING AT A
MUCH-NEEDED SOAKING RAIN IN THE AREAS THAT NEED IT MOST, AND
NOTHING MORE THAN THAT. AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING, OUR RAIN CHANCES
WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR-ZERO AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
OUR COOLEST DAY, THEN EXPECT READINGS TO WARM UP GRADUALLY
THEREAFTER. INDEED, BOTH THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FAVOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID STATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
A COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE TAF
PERIOD. FOR THIS EVENING, WHILE LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE, CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER, BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z, COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. CLOUD HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR TO IFR AS WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AS THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED,
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY, BUT WILL START TO
BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA LATE IN THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 69 80 63 76 / 70 90 80 10
CLARKSVILLE 68 78 60 75 / 90 90 30 0
CROSSVILLE 63 75 61 70 / 40 70 90 20
COLUMBIA 68 79 64 75 / 60 90 80 10
COOKEVILLE 66 77 62 71 / 50 80 80 10
JAMESTOWN 64 75 60 69 / 50 80 90 20
LAWRENCEBURG 67 79 63 74 / 50 80 80 10
MURFREESBORO 68 80 64 75 / 60 80 90 10
WAVERLY 66 77 59 73 / 90 90 40 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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