984
FXUS64 KOHX 062358
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
658 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
- RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH TOMORROW. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.50"-2.50" WILL BE
LIKELY, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50.
- BOTH THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
ANOTHER PUSH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE SURGE OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANT GULF LOW OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A LARGE SWATH OF 2" PWAT
IS SURROUNDING THE GULF LOW, AND THIS IS FORECAST TO TREK INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. QPF VALUES ARE HIGHEST
IN THESE SPOTS WITH A RANGE OF 1.50"-2.30" THROUGH TOMORROW.
FLOODING CONCERNS OVERALL REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND THE ONGOING DROUGHT, THROUGH SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
HEAVIER DOWNFALLS COULD OCCUR TOMORROW IF THERE ARE ANY POCKETS
OF CLEARING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER PATTERN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS IS BREAKING DOWN AS A MOISTURE-LADEN SHORTWAVE IS
FINALLY SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES TODAY AND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE UNSEASONAL WARMTH THAT HAS BEEN THE NORM
THIS FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER. TOMORROW, THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME A
BIT MORE FOCUSED, SO QPF VALUES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL CYCLE. TOMORROW,
MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS UNDER A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AS PER THE WPC. AND, ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
WITH THIS ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM REMAINS VERY LOW, WE CAN EXPECT A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, SO WE CAN EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW LEFTOVER
STORMS TO LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
FINALLY CLEARING OUT. STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES FROM THIS MORNING AT
12Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT 18Z (54 HOURS) RANGE FROM LESS THAN AN
INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND AREAS NEAR THE
ALABAMA LINE TO 2+ INCHES IN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
NASHVILLE. FORTUNATELY, THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES LINE UP NICELY WITH
THE WORST OF THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS, SO IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL EVEN THINGS OUT A BIT. AT THIS
TIME, WE AREN'T THINKING ABOUT ANY SORT OF FLOOD WATCH. IT DOESN'T
APPEAR THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THE KIND OF RAINFALL RATES WE
WOULD NEED TO PRODUCE FLOODING. IN OTHER WORDS, WE'RE LOOKING AT A
MUCH-NEEDED SOAKING RAIN IN THE AREAS THAT NEED IT MOST, AND
NOTHING MORE THAN THAT. AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING, OUR RAIN CHANCES
WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR-ZERO AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
OUR COOLEST DAY, THEN EXPECT READINGS TO WARM UP GRADUALLY
THEREAFTER. INDEED, BOTH THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FAVOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID STATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
A COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE TAF
PERIOD. FOR THIS EVENING, WHILE LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE, CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER, BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z, COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. CLOUD HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR TO IFR AS WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AS THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED,
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY, BUT WILL START TO
BECOME WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA LATE IN THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 69 80 62 76 / 80 90 70 10
CLARKSVILLE 68 78 59 75 / 90 100 30 0
CROSSVILLE 63 73 61 70 / 40 70 80 20
COLUMBIA 69 81 63 75 / 70 80 70 10
COOKEVILLE 66 74 62 71 / 60 80 70 10
JAMESTOWN 63 73 59 69 / 50 90 70 20
LAWRENCEBURG 67 79 62 74 / 60 80 70 10
MURFREESBORO 69 80 63 75 / 70 80 80 10
WAVERLY 66 78 59 73 / 90 90 30 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......BAGGETT
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....CLEMENTS
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