659
FXUS64 KOHX 071620
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1120 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES TODAY, DECREASING TONIGHT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES REST OF THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
- OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK SHOWS RETURN TO WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR WX SO FAR THIS FALL.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN KY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BANDS OF SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE TRAILING TROUGH IN MIDDLE TN. SO FAR, THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED UP IN KY, BUT WE MAY SEE A FEW
MODERATE DOWNPOURS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. A SPOT OR 2 OF BRIEF STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR UNDER
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, BUT OVERALL, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER
1 INCH SHOULD NOT CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, THEN THE
GUSTINESS WILL DECREASE HEADING INTO THE EVENING.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL
BE DONE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, BUT CLOUDS AND A FEW DRIPS WILL
LINGER WELL INTO THE MORNING. THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST MAY HANG
ON TO CLOUDS ALL DAY. COOLER AND DRIER NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL KICK IN BY MIDDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH AT TIMES. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE LOWER TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
EXTENDS DOWN INTO TENNESSEE. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST POST-
FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS
WILL BE A BIT BREEZY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COOL
NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES. LOWS BY THURSDAY
MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OR NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL RISE AND THIS WILL RETURN US TO THE FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR THIS
FALL- DRY WITH WARM DAYS AND SEASONABLE NIGHTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A BIT OF A MESSY AVIATION FORECAST FOR MIDDLE TN AIRFIELDS TODAY
DUE TO A NEARBY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR NORTH. PERIODS
OF SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AS
MVFR CIGS AT BNA, MQY, AND CKV THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 8-12 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE TN
IN THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL PROVIDE A NW WIND SHIFT AS WELL
AS IFR CIGS AFTER ~06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 80 63 76 52 / 100 40 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 79 60 76 48 / 100 30 0 0
CROSSVILLE 74 61 70 47 / 90 90 10 0
COLUMBIA 81 63 75 50 / 90 50 10 0
COOKEVILLE 76 63 71 48 / 100 80 10 0
JAMESTOWN 74 61 69 47 / 100 80 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 80 63 75 49 / 100 60 10 0
MURFREESBORO 81 64 75 51 / 100 60 10 0
WAVERLY 78 60 74 49 / 100 30 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....SIZEMORE
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