953
FXUS64 KOHX 072338
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
638 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES TODAY, DECREASING TONIGHT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES REST OF THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
- OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK SHOWS RETURN TO WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY
PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR WX SO FAR THIS FALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH MIDDLE TN,
AND AS IT DOES SO, RAIN HAS LARGELY COME TO AN END. AT THIS TIME,
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PLATEAU.
WHILE ISOLATED LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, THIS
CHANCE REMAINS LOW. RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT ARE GENERALLY 20-40% FAVORING THE
PLATEAU. FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LOW AS WELL THANKS TO
CLOUD COVER. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND 15-25 MPH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN KY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. BANDS OF SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ALONG THE TRAILING TROUGH IN MIDDLE TN. SO FAR, THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED UP IN KY, BUT WE MAY SEE A FEW
MODERATE DOWNPOURS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. A SPOT OR 2 OF BRIEF STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR UNDER
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, BUT OVERALL, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER
1 INCH SHOULD NOT CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, THEN THE
GUSTINESS WILL DECREASE HEADING INTO THE EVENING.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE LATE
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL
BE DONE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, BUT CLOUDS AND A FEW DRIPS WILL
LINGER WELL INTO THE MORNING. THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST MAY HANG
ON TO CLOUDS ALL DAY. COOLER AND DRIER NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL KICK IN BY MIDDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH AT TIMES. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE LOWER TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
EXTENDS DOWN INTO TENNESSEE. MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST POST-
FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS
WILL BE A BIT BREEZY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COOL
NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES. LOWS BY THURSDAY
MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY
WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OR NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL RISE AND THIS WILL RETURN US TO THE FAMILIAR PATTERN FOR THIS
FALL- DRY WITH WARM DAYS AND SEASONABLE NIGHTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MADE ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. THERE ARE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS STILL IMPACTING THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, BUT FOR THE BULK
OF THE MID STATE, THE SHOWERS HAVE ENDED. THERE WILL BE A BREAK OF
A FEW HOURS BETWEEN THE FROPA AND THE ONSET OF LOW CEILINGS AS A
SWATH OF POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING
LATER THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT RADIATION FOG WILL BE PRESENT BUT
LIMITED OWING TO WINDS STAYING UP A FEW KNOTS WITH THE WIND SHIFT.
LOW CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 64 75 51 74 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 61 76 49 73 / 10 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 62 70 45 68 / 60 10 0 10
COLUMBIA 64 75 49 72 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 63 71 47 70 / 40 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 60 69 46 68 / 50 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 63 73 48 70 / 20 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 65 75 49 73 / 20 0 0 0
WAVERLY 60 74 48 72 / 10 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......CLEMENTS
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....ROSE
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