926
FXUS64 KOHX 020544
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1244 AM CDT SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN NOV 2 2025
- HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
- DRY MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY, GRADUAL WARMING TREND
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
A COOL, WET NIGHT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN. LIGHT RAIN HAS
BLANKETED THE AREA AND THIS IS GOING TO BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. IF YOU'RE HEADED TO BED SOON AND YOU'RE LOOKING
FORWARD TO FALLING ASLEEP LISTENING TO THE RAIN TAP ON THE ROOF,
DON'T FORGET TO SET YOUR CLOCK BACK AN HOUR AS WE ARE MOVING TO
STANDARD TIME TONIGHT. AS WE NEAR DAYBREAK AND THE UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR TONIGHT'S RAIN PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE
MID-STATE, SHOWERS WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. WHILE
THOSE WEST OF I-65 SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE BEFORE LUNCH TOMORROW,
THERE'S A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE THOSE EAST OF I-65, ESPECIALLY THOSE
ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, WILL BE DEALING WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
ABOUT SUNSET. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 1/2
INCH FOR ANYONE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
AS SOON AS THE RAIN ENDS TOMORROW, IT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
ANOTHER LONG STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. WHILE WE'LL HOLD ONTO BELOW-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THESE
WESTERIES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS BY WEDNESDAY, STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHENEVER WE TALK ABOUT A WARMUP, WE ALMOST ALWAYS
FOLLOW IT UP WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS. THIS WARMUP ISN'T ANY
DIFFERENT. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A SYSTEM
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND PROVIDING US WITH OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES.
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN GOING THROUGH QUITE THE
METAMORPHOSIS OVER THE LAST 3 NIGHTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK A
LITTLE HEALTHIER THAN THEY HAVE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES, BUT
THE OVERALL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE. STILL,
WITH THE WARMUP EXPECTED THIS WEEK, IT'LL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN NOV 2 2025
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BORDERLINE IFR CIGS AROUND 010 ARE CURRENTLY NOTED
DOWNSTREAM NEAR THE TN/AL BORDER. THESE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE NORTH OVER BNA/MQY, THOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED LOW MVFR.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. LIGHT RAIN WILL COME TO AN END AT CKV,
BNA, AND MQY LATER THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING. A
GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR CIGS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 54 39 63 39 / 50 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 54 36 63 37 / 10 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 54 37 56 34 / 60 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 54 36 63 36 / 40 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 54 39 58 36 / 80 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 55 38 56 35 / 70 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 53 36 61 35 / 60 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 54 39 62 37 / 70 0 0 0
WAVERLY 53 35 61 37 / 10 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page