771
FXUS64 KOHX 021310
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
710 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 656 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
- HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY. LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
- DRY MOST OF THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY, THEN GRADUAL WARMING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
A COOL, WET NIGHT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MIDDLE TN. LIGHT RAIN HAS
BLANKETED THE AREA AND THIS IS GOING TO BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. AS WE NEAR DAYBREAK AND THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE
FOR TONIGHT'S RAIN PASSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE MID-STATE,
SHOWERS WILL START TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. WHILE THOSE
WEST OF I-65 SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE BEFORE LUNCH TOMORROW, THERE'S A
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE THOSE EAST OF I-65, ESPECIALLY THOSE ON THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, WILL BE DEALING WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH ABOUT
SUNSET. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 1/2
INCH FOR ANYONE.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, PARTIAL CLEARING FOLLOWING THE RAIN WILL LEAD TO
FOGGY CONDITIONS. SOME AREAS COULD BE QUITE FOGGY WITH POOR
VISIBILITY FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
AS SOON AS THE RAIN ENDS, IT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER
LONG STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. WHILE WE'LL HOLD ONTO BELOW- AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED AS WE GO
THROUGH THE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THESE
WESTERIES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS BY WEDNESDAY, STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHENEVER WE TALK ABOUT A WARMUP, WE ALMOST ALWAYS
FOLLOW IT UP WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS. THIS WARMUP ISN'T ANY
DIFFERENT. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A SYSTEM
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND PROVIDING US WITH OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES.
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN GOING THROUGH QUITE THE
METAMORPHOSIS OVER THE LAST 3 NIGHTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK A
LITTLE HEALTHIER THAN THEY HAVE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES, BUT
THE OVERALL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE. STILL,
WITH THE WARMUP EXPECTED THIS WEEK, IT'LL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH LIFR AT CSV AND SRB. GRADUAL SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z, THEN MORE ACCELERATED
IMPROVEMENT AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO TAKE OVER.
UNFORTUNATELY WITH LOTS OF LEFTOVER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE,
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO GO DOWN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A HIGH
PROBABILITY FOR FOG AND STRATUS. MOST SITES WILL DROP TO IFR AND
PERHAPS LIFR AT TIMES FOR THE MONDAY MORNING PUSH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 54 38 62 39 / 60 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 54 36 62 37 / 30 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 53 38 55 34 / 90 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 53 34 62 36 / 50 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 52 39 57 36 / 90 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 54 38 56 35 / 80 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 52 35 62 35 / 50 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 54 37 62 37 / 80 0 0 0
WAVERLY 53 34 61 37 / 30 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....13
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