984
FXUS64 KOHX 021736
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1136 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
- RAIN TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. WARMING UP A LITTLE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
LATE SUNDAY MORNING, LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE LOOPS OVER SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS SYSTEM WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET, GLOOMY WX. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY THIS EVENING, ALLOWING RAIN TO TAPER OFF,
OR AT LEAST DECREASE TO PATCHY DRIZZLE. MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
PLATEAU WILL GET AT LEAST A FEW GLIMPSES OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL, IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
THE MID 50S AT BEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN OVERNIGHT GIVING US A VERY
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR FOG. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE DENSE
FOG IN SOME AREAS, BUT EVEN PARTIAL CLEARING WILL RESULT IN RAPID
FORMATION OF DENSE FOG WITH VERY POOR VISIBILITIES THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, AND THESE IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING RUSH HOUR. CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 30S.
AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BREAK UP MID MORNING, MONDAY WILL TURN
OUT PRETTY DECENT BUT COOL. HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THIS IS AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
DRY WX WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START CHILLY, BUT A MIDWEEK WARMUP TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS STEERING WINDS BECOME ZONAL.
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR A COUPLE OF LATE WEEK / WEEKEND FRONTS
THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA PRETTY QUICKLY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES, SO
THE FORECAST COMES WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. THE LATEST NBM BLEND
SHOWS THE FIRST FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THEN THE NEXT FOR
SUNDAY. THESE FRONTS LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS. RIGHT NOW, MOISTURE DEPTH AND
INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE LACKING FOR ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT, BUT
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS / WIND ENERGY WITH THESE FRONTS, THAT COULD
CHANGE IF THINGS LINE UP A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY THAN CURRENT MODELS
SHOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
AN UPPER LOW IS CIRCULATING ALMOST OVER THE WEATHER OFFICE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS WELL
EAST OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE ARE STILL A FEW LIGHT ECHOES SHOWING
UP ON RADAR, MOSTLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. LOW CEILINGS
WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE MID STATE FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT.
TONIGHT IS A CLASSIC FOG SCENARIO, WITH A DAMP GROUND AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS, AND ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
THEIR T-OVER VALUES. THE DENSEST FOG AND LOWEST CEILINGS WILL
AFFECT OUR TWO CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TERMINALS (KCSV & KSRB), WITH
LESSER IMPACTS ELSEWHERE. SUNSHINE WILL RE-EMERGE TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FINALLY MIXES OUT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 53 38 63 39 / 60 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 52 35 62 37 / 30 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 47 38 56 34 / 90 20 0 0
COLUMBIA 52 34 62 35 / 40 10 0 0
COOKEVILLE 48 38 57 35 / 90 20 0 0
JAMESTOWN 47 38 56 35 / 90 20 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 51 35 62 34 / 50 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 52 37 62 35 / 70 10 0 0
WAVERLY 52 34 60 37 / 30 10 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....ROSE
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