547
FXUS64 KOHX 030101
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
701 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 700 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
- STUBBORN LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.
- MOST CLOUDS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AN ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY MORNING.
- DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. WARMING UP A LITTLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
FOR MOST, THE LIGHT RAIN HAS COME TO AN END. IN FACT, SOME ARE
ALREADY SEEING STARS. HOWEVER, THAT'S NOT THE CASE FOR EVERYONE AS
THERE'S AN AXIS OF STUBBORN CLOUDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS UPPER
LOW THAT CONTINUES TO SPIT OUT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. SATELLITE
SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS ONLY HAVE AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIFE LEFT AS
THEY ARE DISSIPATING. AS CLOUDS DISAPPEAR, WE SHOULD START TO SEE
FOG DEVELOP. THERE ISN'T A FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM DRAGGING A BUNCH
OF DRY AIR IN HERE, SO DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL NEAR ZERO PRETTY
QUICK. ACROSS THE BOARD, MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME PRETTY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD
BY MIDNIGHT. I THINK FOR THESE REASONS, I'M GOING TO GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, MOST OF THESE
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE FOG STICKING AROUND DEEP INTO THE
MORNING, SO I'M GOING TO RUN WITH A MIDNIGHT TO 10 AM ADVISORY.
PLEASE USE CAUTION ON AREA ROADWAYS TONIGHT AND DURING THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE!
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
LATE SUNDAY MORNING, LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE LOOPS OVER SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS SYSTEM WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET, GLOOMY WX. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY THIS EVENING, ALLOWING RAIN TO TAPER OFF,
OR AT LEAST DECREASE TO PATCHY DRIZZLE. MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
PLATEAU WILL GET AT LEAST A FEW GLIMPSES OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL, IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
THE MID 50S AT BEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN OVERNIGHT GIVING US A VERY
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR FOG. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE DENSE
FOG IN SOME AREAS, BUT EVEN PARTIAL CLEARING WILL RESULT IN RAPID
FORMATION OF DENSE FOG WITH VERY POOR VISIBILITIES THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, AND THESE IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING RUSH HOUR. CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 30S.
AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BREAK UP MID MORNING, MONDAY WILL TURN
OUT PRETTY DECENT BUT COOL. HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THIS IS AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
DRY WX WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START CHILLY, BUT A MIDWEEK WARMUP TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS STEERING WINDS BECOME ZONAL.
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR A COUPLE OF LATE WEEK / WEEKEND FRONTS
THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA PRETTY QUICKLY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES, SO
THE FORECAST COMES WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. THE LATEST NBM BLEND
SHOWS THE FIRST FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THEN THE NEXT FOR
SUNDAY. THESE FRONTS LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS. RIGHT NOW, MOISTURE DEPTH AND
INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE LACKING FOR ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT, BUT
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS / WIND ENERGY WITH THESE FRONTS, THAT COULD
CHANGE IF THINGS LINE UP A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY THAN CURRENT MODELS
SHOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
WESTERN TERMINALS WILL SEE CLOUDS DECREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WESTERN TERMINALS WILL SEE A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE OUTSIDE OF THE NASHVILLE METRO. LOW CLOUDS WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE PLATEAU AS THE EVENING GOES ON AND IFR/LIFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. THEY WILL ALSO SEE PERIODS OF DENSE
FOG BETWEEN 06 AND 15Z. ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS BY
15Z WITH CLEAR SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
INCREASE UP TO 8 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 38 63 39 69 / 20 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 35 62 37 69 / 20 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 38 56 34 63 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 34 62 35 69 / 20 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 38 57 35 65 / 20 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 38 56 35 63 / 20 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 35 62 34 69 / 20 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 37 62 35 69 / 20 0 0 0
WAVERLY 34 60 37 67 / 20 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR
TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
UPDATE.......UNGER
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....MUELLER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page