801
FXUS64 KOHX 030455
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1055 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1037 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TN UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.
- DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. GRADUAL WARMUP WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
ALL RAINS HAVE FINALLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AND OVER THE LAST
HOUR, CLOUDS COMPLETELY CLEARED OUT OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
IN THEIR PLACE, WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. SEVERAL PLACES
ARE ALREADY AT 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY OR WORSE. ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF? A BIT OF A DIFFERENT STORY. CLOUDS HAVE HELD FIRM AND MAY EVEN
BE THICKENING A BIT. EARLIER, I ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
WHOLE AREA, BUT WHETHER THEN EASTERN HALF WILL SEE IT IS YET TO BE
DETERMINED. ONE MIGHT SAY THAT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM MIDDLE TN, THESE CLOUDS WILL START TO
DISSIPATE, BUT WITH THE SUN DOWN AND AN INVERSION IN PLACE, THEY MAY
HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL HOLD FIRM WITH THE
ADVISORY AND IF NEED BE, ADJUST LATER TONIGHT. AS I MENTIONED IN THE
UPDATE A FEW HOURS AGO, IT'S WORTH MENTIONING AGAIN THAT MANY MODELS
HOLD ONTO THIS DENSE FOG THROUGH 9 OR 10 AM TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
MEANS MANY WILL ENCOUNTER DENSE FOG DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
PLEASE USE CAUTION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
ONCE THE FOG CLEARS OUT TOMORROW MORNING, WE'RE IN FOR SEVERAL QUIET
DAYS IN A ROW. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY AND LOW 70S THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS STILL PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY. IF
THE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE ITS WAY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING
BETTER FOR AT LEAST A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, THAT'S ONLY ONE MODEL SOLUTION. EURO
EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE. DUE TO LACK OF AGREEMENT,
I'LL CONTINUE TO JUST SAY, ENJOY THE WEEK OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WHILE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
FRIDAY FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
WE ARE GOING TO SEE POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING DUE TO WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CIGS. MVFR TO LIFR FOG IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE
NASHVILLE METRO. WE WILL ALSO SEE LIFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN 09 AND
15Z FOR ALL OF THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
IN THE MORNING AFTER 15Z WITH ALL TERMINALS RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASE UP
TO 8 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 37 63 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 35 63 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 37 56 35 63 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 33 63 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 38 56 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 38 56 36 64 / 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 33 62 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 36 62 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 34 61 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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