896
FXUS64 KOHX 040327
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
927 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 921 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
- AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LOW.
- DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOLID WARMUP WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING TOMORROW.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS, WITH AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG
STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 921 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT IS IN THE WORKS. LOWS IN THE MORNING SHOULD
DIP INTO THE 30S FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYBODY IN MIDDLE TN. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IS MEDIUM TO HIGH, BUT IT DEFINITELY
WON'T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WE SAW LAST NIGHT AND LIKELY WILL BE
RELEGATED TO AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
AFTER ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S/UPPER 50S TODAY, TEMPERATURES
ARE GOING TO REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW. WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER (THOUGH WEAK) SWUNG AROUND TO THE SOUTH, AFTERNOON
HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE GOING TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IN
FACT, MANY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LOTS OF SUN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 921 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERS THE PICTURE FRIDAY. I'VE BEEN TALKING
THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS ABOUT THESE STORMS AND I STILL SAY THIS
SYSTEM IS WORTH WATCHING. NOW LOOK, I'M NOT SAYING WE'RE GOING TO
HAVE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK, BY ANY MEANS. HOWEVER,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOTHING TO IGNORE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NORTH OF 6.5 DEG C/KM AND ONE OF THESE TYPICAL LOW-CAPE/HIGH
SHEAR SETUPS, AT LEAST STRONG STORMS ARE ON THE TABLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. I'M LOOKING AT NBM PROBS AND WITH 300+ J/KG OF
CAPE AT ABOUT 70% IN OUR SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND PAIRED WITH 50 KTS
OF BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HELICITIES? WE SHOULD HAVE
AT LEAST *SOME* ORGANIZATION. NOW, WHAT IS THIS SYSTEM'S
LIMITATIONS? THE FIRST THING YOU SEE IS THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS
ARE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH WITH THE PARENT LOW FAR INTO CANADA.
BUT, THE FRONT ITSELF IS SHARP AND THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF
LIFT THANKS TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WE'RE
STILL 4 DAYS OUT, SO THERE'S PLENTY OF TIME TO HASH OUT ANY
SPECIFICS, BUT I'M JUST THROWING IT OUT THERE.
BEHIND FRIDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT AT US
GETTING CLIPPED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE
SEEMS A BIT STARVED WITH THIS ONE. WHAT I WILL SAY IS THAT THE AIR
MASS BEHIND SUNDAY'S UPPER TROUGH MIGHT BE THE COLDEST OF THE FALL
SO FAR. MOST OF OUR MODELS ARE SHOWING EXTENDED TEMPERATURES "MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES". NBM PROBS OF MORNING LOWS BELOW FREEZING
TUESDAY MORNING NEXT WEEK ARE ALREADY 70-80%. FOR NOW, GET OUTSIDE
THIS WEEK AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SOME FANTASTIC WEATHER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN LAST NIGHT, IT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO LOCAL
WATERWAYS AND PORTIONS OF THE PLATEAU. QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW WITH
JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AFTER 15Z UP TO 5 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 40 70 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 39 69 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 35 64 44 67 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 38 70 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 37 66 46 68 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 36 64 45 67 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 37 69 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 37 69 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 40 68 47 71 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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